More than 47,000 people died in Europe last year from heat, according to a new report published Monday in Nature Medicine. The study was conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), which looked at a wealth of historical temperature and mortality records from 35 different countries to make its calculations.
The year 2023 broke records as the hottest year on record, and experts think 2024 could be next: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a one in three chance this year will be hotter than 2023.
The Nature Medicine study researchers said the estimated 47,690 deaths occurred between late May and early October, with more than half occurring during just two heatwaves in mid-July and late August.
In a similar study conducted the previous year, ISGlobal researchers estimated that more than 60,000 people in Europe died from heat in 2022.
According to 2023 figures, southern European countries are the most affected by heat-related deaths, with Greece, Bulgaria and Italy completing the top three spots.
Women and older people are at the highest risk of heat-related deaths, the study found. The death rate is 55% higher for women than for men, and 768% higher for people aged 80 and older than for those aged 65 to 79.
“As people age, their ability to regulate their body temperature, such as sweating and adjusting blood flow, becomes less effective,” said Dr. Celine Gounder, a CBS News medical contributor. “Heat can also worsen chronic conditions, such as heart, lung and kidney disease.”
One bright spot in an otherwise gloomy report is that society’s adaptation to heat over the past century has likely saved thousands of lives.
“[These processes] “This has significantly reduced heat-related vulnerability and mortality in recent summers, particularly among older adults,” Elisa Gallo, one of the ISGlobal study researchers, said in a statement.
The report on deadly heat conditions comes at a time when tourism is soaring in Europe during the peak months of June to August. A survey by Allianz Partners found that visitor numbers to the continent increased by 55% between 2022 and 2023.
Droughts, wildfires and high temperatures continue to plague popular destinations like Greece, which recently drew national attention after hikers went missing or were found dead amid a brutal heatwave. The Mediterranean country has also been dealing with a series of wildfires, including one that is currently encroaching on Athens.
The total number of heat-related deaths in Europe – as elsewhere – is difficult to analyse. Researchers have even warned that their own findings may underestimate the burden of heat-related mortality.
Experts say heat-related deaths and illnesses are likely underreported. That’s because while heat can play a role in a person’s death, it’s often not recorded as the primary cause of death unless it’s heatstroke.
“People can show up in the emergency room or hospital with a heart attack, stroke, asthma attack or kidney failure, and heat is often not recorded in medical records as the underlying cause,” Dr. Gounder said.
Kristie Ebi, an epidemiologist and professor of global health at the University of Washington, did not work directly on the study but said the approach used, known as “excess mortality analysis,” is a much more accurate way to measure the risks people face from exposure to high temperatures.
“[It] “That gives some indications that can be very helpful for the magnitude of the challenge, without trying to decide at the individual level whether this heart attack was exacerbated by heat, but this one was not,” she said.
According to the Department of Health and Human Services, there were 2,302 heat-related deaths recorded in the United States in 2023. It should be noted that these are recorded deaths, not estimates like those in the Nature Medicine study. There is no comparable estimate for the United States.
Ebi warns that if U.S. heat-related death counts are inaccurate, the country will not spend enough on emergency hospital services, cooling centers and other interventions needed to save lives.
“If there are only 2,000 heat-related deaths, the incentive to invest will be limited,” she said.
