Diplomacy Takes Center Stage as Iran Refrains from Retaliating Against Israel

In addition to a wave of fighter jets and warships, President Biden this week dispatched three of his top Middle East advisers, including CIA Director Bill Burns, to the region to try to delay military retaliation by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel and use the time to craft a path out of a collision course that ultimately threatens to trigger a regional war that could draw in U.S. forces.

The United States believes Iran will not seek to disrupt ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Doha aimed at ending the war between Hamas and Israel. Those technical talks could extend into the weekend, but it is unclear how long Iran and its proxies can wait. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Thursday that an Iranian attack could come “with little or no warning, and could certainly happen in the coming days.”

Iran and its Lebanon-based proxy force, Hezbollah, have vowed to retaliate in response to the attack. assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two weeks ago and the assassination in July of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, but they have not specified when or how. Israel has said it Shukr was killed in an airstrikeA U.S. official confirmed to CBS News that Israel was responsible for Haniyeh’s killing, although Israel has not publicly acknowledged it.

But multiple sources in the region told CBS News that the Iranian government continues to debate internally whether to use military force as it has done. April 13thwhen it launched hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel, or whether it was to conduct a covert intelligence operation. Sources also told CBS that Lebanon-based Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah does not want to act without Iran’s consent, but also is not seeking to trigger a larger conflict with Israel. The United States believes Hezbollah could launch an attack with little or no warning.

U.S. diplomacy, which includes indirect contacts with Tehran through other governments and with Hezbollah through politicians in Beirut, aims to limit the risk of regional escalation. Permanent Mission of Iran to the United Nations told CBS News Earlier this month, Hezbollah may not be limiting itself to military targets in Israel this time, suggesting that the group could target civilian targets “more broadly and deeply” inside Israeli territory. In 2021, the CIA estimated that Hezbollah had an arsenal of up to 150,000 missiles and rockets, including long-range ones that collectively have the potential to overwhelm Israel’s missile defense system and could strike deep inside Israeli territory.

At a press conference in Beirut on Wednesday, U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein said the centerpiece of Biden’s strategy is to use this narrow window of time to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a hostage release and ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip, which could then help avert a war in Lebanon after 10 months of cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah.

In a dogged effort to turn the Biden administration’s Gaza ceasefire framework into a workable deal, NSC Director Brett McGurk was in Cairo earlier this week and traveled to Doha, Qatar, to help hammer out implementation details. With the United States as mediator, Burns led discussions in Doha with Israeli Mossad Director David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Egyptian Intelligence Director Abbas Kamel.

The United States is expected to present a final transition proposal, which U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said would include the release of all hostages, a vaccination campaign to stop the spread of polio, the restoration of services, including water and electricity, to displaced Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, and includes efforts to help end the fighting in Lebanon. Current figures from the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry now indicate a grim record of 40,000 Palestinians killed in the bloody 10-month war.

If all else fails, the United States also has a parallel plan, similar to the one Iran used to launch its attack on Israel on April 13, to defend Israel with the help of its allies.

In that spring attack, British military aircraft were deployed to help protect U.S. and allied forces in Iraq and Syria, who are stationed in the region as part of the anti-ISIS coalition presence. If a similar attack is launched this time by Iran, the new British government is expected to replicate its role. A British official told CBS News: “Our primary focus is on diplomacy and de-escalation. But as you would expect, we are also prepared to defend Israel, and we remain in constant contact with the United States and our allies on potential scenarios, including active support to replace U.S. functions as we did in April.”

A French official also told CBS News: “We have called on all actors in the region to de-escalate. Alongside the United States, we are maintaining strong diplomatic and military coordination in the region and are contributing to the assessment and monitoring of the situation.”

In parallel with the Doha discussions, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourne was in Lebanon on Thursday to meet with government leaders, particularly those close to Hezbollah, “to support ongoing diplomatic efforts towards de-escalation in the region,” he said on X.

The timing of the Doha meeting, just four days before the start of the Democratic National Convention, also underscores the priority the Biden-Harris administration is placing on ending the bloodshed and freeing hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, including five Americans still missing. The conflict has had a domestic political impact, and polls show that the humanitarian toll has particularly resonated with progressive, Black, Arab and Muslim American voters. The family of American hostage Omer Neutra spoke at the Republican National Convention on July 17 to advocate for greater public pressure.

contributed to this report.