Vice President Kamala Harris’ narrow lead over former President Donald Trump is narrowing, with a new national poll indicating the 2024 presidential race is tightening just weeks before Election Day.
A recent Emerson College survey of 1,000 likely voters shows Harris leading Trump by a single percentage point, with 49% supporting Harris and 48% supporting Trump. The poll has a margin of error of three percentage points.
The race is now nearly deadlocked, with the two candidates splitting the national vote and drawing closer in key battleground states. Harris, who had a two-point lead over Trump late last month, is now barely ahead of the Republican nominee.
This narrowing gap could be a worrying sign for Harris.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that while the margin between the candidates has remained steady since early September, with Harris maintaining a slight advantage, “it is less than Biden’s four-point lead in the polls 2020 Emerson Nationals to Present”. “.
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The survey also reveals a clear gender divide. Trump leads among men, with 56 percent supporting him, compared to 42 percent who support Harris.
Fifty-five percent of women support Harris, while 41 percent say they support Trump.
This gap reflects broader voting trends in the United States, where men tend to lean toward Trump, while women tend to favor Harris.
Voter sentiment also remains deeply polarized, according to the survey.
Of those who have already made up their minds, 80 percent said they decided who they were going to vote for more than a month ago. Early decision-makers tend to favor Trump (52%), while those who decided more recently favor Harris (60%).
Three percent of voters are still undecided, and even though that percentage is small, it could still change the outcome of the election, especially in such a close race. Kimball noted that even if undecided voters lean slightly toward Harris, the poll’s margin of error means their final choice could tip the scales one way or the other.
A good week for Trump
This narrowing gap is particularly troubling for Harris, given how previous elections have played out.
As Kimball pointed out, Joe Biden had a stronger lead over Trump at this point in the 2020 election, which provided a buffer heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
Similarly, Hillary Clinton had a significant advantage over Trump in 2016, before Trump made a dramatic comeback in the final weeks before the election.
On Thursday, Nate Silver’s forecast confirmed the shift in momentum in Trump’s favor, noting that his chances of victory are at their highest level since August. The updated model reflects several strong polling results in Trump’s favor in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Silver’s latest projections show Trump holding a slight advantage in the electoral college, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 49.5 percent — although Harris has a 75 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
