The stock market has climbed during the presidential campaign, raising questions about whether the rise will continue depending on who wins: Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.
THEThe &P 500 has climbed more than 20% this year, repeating a feat the index achieved in 2023. The Nasdaq has surged 23% this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 14%.
For the duration of the next administration, the market will likely rise whether the country elects Harris or Trump, experts told ABC News. However, they added, each candidate’s policies could favor different types of actions while posing unique risks.
Here’s what you need to know about what a Harris or Trump victory could mean for the stock market:
What would a Trump presidency mean for the stock market?
Trump has pledged to extend the corporate tax cuts enacted during his first term when they begin to phase out in 2025. If approved by Congress and signed into law, the tax cuts would accompany a program of anticipated deregulation taken up by federal agencies within the country. Trump administration.
Experts say this combination of low corporate tax rates and loose regulation would likely boost corporate profits and propel the stock market higher.
“Taxes have consequences,” Peter Morici, professor emeritus at the University of Maryland School of Business, told ABC News. “With the Trump administration, it will be like a cork falling. »
Trump’s policies would favor sectors such as oil and gas as well as artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, companies focused on renewable energy could suffer if Trump undermines financial incentives passed under Biden, some experts said.
“The Inflation Reduction Act has been a big problem for solar and electric vehicle stocks,” Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, told ABC News. “Who knows what will happen if this policy is reversed? »
Trump Media & Technology Group, the Trump-owned parent company of social media platform Truth Social, could rise in value if Trump takes office. The company’s stock price has more than doubled in the past month as the former president has improved his standing in some polls.
However, while Trump’s policy proposals could boost the stock market, they could also threaten market performance, some experts said.
During his election campaign, Trump promised tariffs of up to 20% on all imported products. Most economists expect such a policy to raise consumer prices. Trump also announced plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, which some economists say could lead to a labor shortage.
Last month, Trump suggested using the military to quell what he described as the “enemy within.”
“If he starts using the military domestically, imposes 20% tariffs and becomes a draconian and undemocratic figure, it will weigh terribly on the stock market,” Morici said.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 22, 2024 in New York.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
What would a Harris presidency mean for the stock market?
Stock prices would likely rise under Harris, as they have under President Joe Biden, but a potential corporate tax increase and strict regulatory enforcement could limit gains, some experts said.
Corporations currently face a 21% federal tax rate, which Harris aims to increase to 28%. Such a tax hike could hamper corporate profits and starve the stock market of some fuel, Reena Aggarwal, a finance professor and director of the Georgetown Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, told ABC News. But, she added, it remains unclear whether the policy will ultimately become law.
“I don’t think it can happen that easily,” Aggarwal said. “It takes a long time.”
Aggarwal highlighted that renewable technologies are a sector that would benefit from policies pursued by the Harris administration.
Asked how the stock market would fare under Harris, Cox said the outcome would “depend on interest rates and earnings.”
The Federal Reserve typically raises interest rates in an effort to calm the economy and curb inflation, but the policy often puts downward pressure on stock prices.
The Harris campaign has laid out proposals to slow the rising prices of everything from groceries to prescription drugs to homes. Those plans include a federal ban on price gouging and a focus on market concentration that the Biden administration says leads to high costs for consumers.
Ultimately, long-term stock performance will likely depend on economic forces over which Harris, or any other president, has limited control, Cox added.
“I don’t think Kamala Harris could enact changes that would have long-term effects on the stock market,” Cox said. “If you’re a long-term investor, politics doesn’t matter to your portfolio.”
