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Ministers may have to dissuade Britons from taking the train between Birmingham and Manchester as the decision to scrap the second phase of the HS2 project means there will be fewer seats on existing rail services, parliament’s spending watchdog has warned.
The HS2 findings are contained in one of a dozen National Audit Office reports published on Tuesday, fuelling Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s claim that he is tasked with cleaning up “a mountain of mess” left by the previous Conservative government.
Other NAO findings include a warning that the NHS in England could “collapse” before it could meet the standards expected by patients and that ministers tried to clean up a pothole epidemic without having “a sufficiently good understanding of the state of local roads”.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned her cabinet colleagues on Tuesday that “difficult decisions” would have to be made in her autumn budget to restore order to public spending, with the Conservatives saying she was preparing the country for significant tax rises.
In perhaps the most eye-catching report, the NAO said former prime minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to scrap the northern leg of HS2 could force the government to urge people to avoid using trains.
The watchdog said removing the northern section of the high-speed rail link would take three years and cost up to £100m, and that some platforms would still be built even if they were never used.
New custom-built HS2 trains that will run on existing tracks north of Birmingham when the link is operational could result in 17% less capacity than the existing fleet, the watchdog said in a report published on Tuesday.
As a result, the government may need to manage demand by “incentivising people to travel at different times or not to travel by train”, the NAO said, calling for a “proper reset” of the system to ensure value for money.
HS2 is Britain’s largest and most controversial infrastructure project, marred by delays, cost overruns and conflict of interest scandals.
Last October, Conservative Party leader Sunak, then prime minister, abandoned the northern leg of HS2, saying £36bn could be saved and invested in more cost-effective rail, bus and road projects, including filling potholes.
More than £30bn in 2019 had been spent on the rail link as of March this year, the NAO said, with £592m of land purchased for the project no longer needed.
But the Department for Transport and HS2 Ltd, the company running the project, are at odds over the final cost, although all estimates predict it will exceed the current budget of £44.6bn.
The NAO’s warning of a potential capacity cut comes after the National Infrastructure Commission predicted high demand on the cancelled northern leg in May.
The government’s top infrastructure adviser has estimated that passenger arrivals in Birmingham and Manchester could be up to 61% and 50% respectively above pre-pandemic levels by 2045.
The NAO said new platforms at Birmingham’s Curzon Street station would still be built but would never be used because it would be more expensive to cancel their construction.
The watchdog also said Whitehall still lacked a clear plan for HS2’s terminus at Euston station; the Department for Transport had yet to decide on “the scope, funding or governance” of the central London station.
The Department for Transport is pushing ahead with plans for a “new delivery model” that would see the private sector pay for the tunnel and station in exchange for housing and commercial development on the site, the report said. But the DfT said it would take several years before all the arrangements could be put in place, it added.
Until Euston Station opens, the London terminus of HS2 will be the new station under construction at Old Oak Common, in the north-west of the capital. HS2 passengers will need to take the Elizabeth Line or the Great Western Railway to reach the city centre.
HS2 Ltd said: “This is a project of unprecedented scale and complexity, and the cancellation of Phase 2 has increased our cost challenges.
“We are now undertaking radical reforms to better control costs and deliver the next stage of the programme: moving beyond peak construction between London and the West Midlands and beginning the transition to an operational railway,” he added.
Transport Secretary Louise Haigh said the Conservative government had “recklessly mismanaged HS2 and allowed costs to spiral out of control – but this report lays bare the extent of their mistakes.”
“We are reviewing the findings of this report, together with the position we inherited on HS2 and wider transport infrastructure, and will set out next steps in due course,” she added.
