WASHINGTON — The last doors are knocked, the advertisements ring and the candidates make a final speech to voters. Even with the final forceful push, the races for control of Congress are deadlocked, essentially a toss-up for the House and a fight to the finish for the Senate.
The outcome of Tuesday’s election will determine the future of the country, determining whether the new White House has allies or skeptics on Capitol Hill — or whether it faces a divided Congress like this last session, which was among the most tumultuous and unproductive in modern times.
As voters weigh their presidential options between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, they are also weighing who will represent them in Congress.
“That’s why I’m an independent,” said voter Gary Motta of Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, who is unhappy with either choice for president, as he appeared at an event early Sunday morning to Republican Kevin Coughlin, who is trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes.
The fight for control of Congress has been going on for months. The candidates clashed over the big issues — the economy, the border, reproductive health care and the future of democracy — but also over Congress itself, which had a chaotic session as the House ruled by the Republican Party ousted its president and barely withstood government shutdowns.
This is the first presidential election since the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and many Republican lawmakers who voted against certifying Democrat Joe Biden’s White House victory over Trump are running for re-election.
Republican candidates, many of whom the former president supports, must answer for him on several fronts. Among them, the Supreme Court decision, with three justices appointed by Trump, which ended the right to abortion.
Democrats face tough questions about Biden-Harris’ record on the U.S.-Mexico border and inflation during their tenure in the White House.
Most of the hotly contested House campaigns are taking place beyond presidential states, including New York and California, where Republican Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted as speaker and then left Congress, has made inroads in his home state. Democrats led by Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the party’s leader in the House, are now trying to win them back.
Starting Saturday, California Rep. Pete Aguilar, chairman of the Democratic caucus, will make a nine-stop trip across the Golden State to regain back seats.
“There’s a lot of energy there,” Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, who heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview from Omaha, Nebraska, a surprising battleground, after an election in New York. “We are working hard to get out the vote.”
She said there were “tons of volunteers on the ground, lots of energy, very, very focused people. They understand there’s a lot at stake.”
With the ever-increasing scale of campaign fundraising, this election year stands out: $2.5 billion being spent to win the Senate and nearly $1 billion for the House.
The Senate is the Republicans’ undoing, a coda to the long leadership of their party leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. He recruited wealthy Republican candidates, many of whom were backed by Trump, to take on a half-dozen Democratic incumbents facing tough reelections.
In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is in one of the nation’s most competitive races that could give Republicans control. But a half-dozen Senate races, including in “blue wall” Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, are as close as the presidential race in those states.
But last-minute changes are injecting new uncertainty into other Senate races, putting Sen. Ted Cruz on the defensive in heavily Republican Texas, where Democratic Rep. Colin Allred has seen renewed energy, notably in of Harris’ star-studded gathering in Houston with hometown hero Beyoncé. Nebraska independent Dan Osborne caught Republicans off guard as he attempted to unseat Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.
Other Republican Senate candidates have stumbled.
In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno, who faces Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, made comments critical of suburban women who make access to abortion a priority issue. Republican Tim Sheehy made disparaging remarks about Native Americans, a key voting bloc in his race against Tester in Montana.
As Republicans have outsourced their get-out-the-vote efforts to new groups, including Elon Musk’s America PAC, campaign committees have had to step up to ensure people vote.
Davide Cuigini, a member of the Young Republicans working to get out the vote for Moreno last weekend in Ohio, said, “The Republicans are finally voting early, so that’s going to make a difference.” »
Still, energy on the Democratic side increased quickly once Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket over the summer.
Democrat Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, who could make history alongside Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware as a Black woman in the Senate, hosted former President Barack Obama last week. Alsobrooks is running against Larry Hogan, a popular former governor.
In the House, Democrats have seen several races change direction, according to nonpartisan analysts. But others, in Alaska and in an open seat in Michigan, lean Republican. Two of the House’s longest-serving lawmakers are engaged in the battles of their political lives in Ohio and California.
However, an internal DCCC memo showed that 21 of the 25 contested seats were still close, one week before the elections.
There are also some unusual battlegrounds, including what Nebraskans call the “blue dot” around Omaha, where Republican Don Bacon faces a challenge from Democrat Tony Vargas.
The outcome of the races will be a test of leadership in the House under Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. He said during a recent stop near Akron, Ohio, that with the Republican Party’s “winning warriors” as candidates, he knew they would win.
Jeffries, vying to become House speaker if Democrats take control, said he decided to “stay calm” even if the possibility of unexpected events keeps him up at night.
If the two chambers actually exercise reverse control, as is possible, this would be rare.
Records show that if Democrats take the House and Republicans the Senate, it would be the first time that the chambers of Congress have both tilted toward opposing political parties.
“This election is a very big deal,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, campaigning for a fellow Democrat in one of his state’s House races.
Associated Press writers Lea Skene in Baltimore, along with Stephen Groves and Kevin Freking, contributed to this report.
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