There is a small chance that a system in the southwest Atlantic will strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara within the next 48 hours.
The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring an area of disturbance for several days, although the chance of formation remains around 20% for the next seven days. However, the latest NHC update shows that the potential chance of a storm forming over the next seven days has increased to 30 percent, and the chance of one forming over the next two days is now 10 percent.
If it forms, the tropical storm will be named Sara. It would be the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
National Hurricane Center
“A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms east-northeast of the Leeward Islands,” the latest NHC update said.
It continues: “Parts of this system are expected to move westward over the next few days and may form a depression near the leeward north by Thursday. Thereafter, slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week. as it moves generally westward over the southwest Atlantic.
The path of possible Tropical Storm Sara is uncertain, as the NHC has not made an official forecast for the possible storm. However, AccuWeather meteorologists predict the storm will form between Friday and Saturday.
News week contacted AccuWeather by email for comment.
The strengthening system comes as Tropical Storm Rafael strengthens in the Caribbean, south of Cuba. Rafael has maximum sustained wind speeds of 70 mph, just a few miles per hour shy of making it a Category 1 hurricane. The NHC expects the storm to strengthen into a hurricane later Tuesday evening.
Rafael’s path is expected to pass through Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where further development is uncertain due to strong wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures. However, if it remains organized, the storm could make landfall in Louisiana early next week, a historic event since no named storms have made landfall in Louisiana in November.
Rafael is expected to maintain hurricane status through Friday morning, although forecasts for the weekend remain unclear. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Wednesday in the Florida Keys, as meteorologists warn of coastal flooding, heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds as the storm passes westward.
“It is too early to determine what impacts, if any, Rafael may have on portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said in a recent update. “Residents in this area should monitor forecast updates regularly.”
