It’s the goalies, stupid.
The Islanders can and should worry about their special teams and how their defense is constructed and whether their offense can keep up without Mat Barzal and Anthony Duclair and all the details in each of those buckets. This is all very good, and all this matters a lot.
But let’s talk for a moment about the concrete results. Staying in playoff contention until the Islanders are healthy depends on Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov. And as bad as everything else may have seemed, there’s really nothing to worry about there.
From the start of the season about four weeks ago, Sorokin was the biggest question facing the Islanders. There was his back surgery in the offseason; it had its struggles down the stretch and in the playoffs last season; there was his eight-year contract, which would instantly become an albatross if he failed to recover well.
It all went away pretty quickly.
Before Thursday night’s game in Ottawa, where Varlamov was scheduled to start for the first time since last Wednesday’s loss in Columbus, Sorokin had compiled a .921 save percentage and 2.35 GAA in his first eight starts. That’s almost exactly on par with the .924 save percentage and 2.34 GAA he had in 2022-23, when the Islanders reached the playoffs almost entirely on the strength of Sorokin’s play – including at the end of the season when Barzal was out injured.
It was then about the guards. Now it’s about the goalkeepers.
“He’s one of the best goalies in the game,” Patrick Roy said of Sorokin last week.
There’s a bit more room for concern regarding Varlamov, who entered Thursday with an .876 save percentage and negative 1.93 saved goals above expectations, according to Evolving Hockey, during his first five starts. The early season plan was to split starts equally between the two, largely due to the belief that playing almost every night had a negative impact on Sorokin over time.
That plan already showed cracks as Sorokin started three straight games heading into Thursday. He will go straight to the trash if he continues to outperform his counterpart by such a wide margin.
Varlamov’s story, however, tells us that this is more likely a small sample anomaly than a serious cause for concern. In his first five seasons on the island, all over the age of 30, Varlamov posted a .917 save percentage and was as steady as they come.
To Roy and the Islanders’ credit, they also aren’t giving in every night like they were under Lane Lambert. Although Roy rightly admitted Tuesday that they would likely allow more shots and chances without Alexander Romanov, Mike Reilly and Adam Pelech in the fold, the Islanders have done a better job of keeping the opposition on the outside looking in. and limiting the chances since he took charge. coach.
Even though goalkeepers must be relied upon, this cannot be an explicit strategy or mindset in the locker room. The other 21 guys can’t control how the goalies play, but they can have a say in how well they play each night. Indeed, Sorokin’s 3.47 goals saved above expectations – good but far from the league top – has more to do with the Islanders’ success in their own zone than anything Sorokin didn’t do by compared to a few years ago.
So goaltending may not be the only thing, and the parallels between Sorokin and early-era Jacob deGrom are indeed concerning. But that’s what matters most.
The reality right now is that the Islanders are missing two of their most talented offensive players and rank 31st in the league in scoring per game. The reality is that the entire left side of their defense is injured and so there will be a dropout. The reality is they need wins now after a mediocre first 10 games of the season and even best-case scenario they won’t field a fully healthy lineup until after they return from a five-game trip to western Canada and Detroit. fifteen days.
The reality is that whatever happens between now and then, it concerns the goaltenders.
