Instant reaction to Week 13 developments…
1. Big 12: on the mark
The Big 12 title race is pure chaos, but one thing is clear: The conference championship on December 7 will not pit the two best teams against each other.
One of them cannot qualify.
Kansas is playing as well as anyone in the conference and beat No. 16 Colorado on Saturday to complete the trifecta after wins over No. 24 Iowa State and No. 14 Brigham Young both previous weeks. (And they were 16 seconds away from upsetting No. 21 Arizona State in early October.)
The Jayhawks are the first team with a losing record to defeat three consecutive ranked opponents in major college history.
No one in the Big 12 wants to face the Jayhawks — not after they rushed for 331 yards and picked off Colorado’s passing game in the second half of a 37-21 victory.
But the Jayhawks (5-6 overall/4-4 Big 12) lost their first three conference games and were eliminated from contention a month ago.
So the hottest team in the Big 12, not named Arizona State, cannot qualify for the championship.
Meanwhile, the Sun Devils (9-3/6-2) control their own destiny after holding off Brigham Young 28-23 at Mountain America Stadium. (Their six-win improvement from last season is the largest year-over-year increase in school history.)
If the Devils beat Arizona next weekend, they will advance to the championship game.
Surprisingly, the team picked 16th in the Big 12 preseason poll is four quarters away from playing for the conference title.
2. The decisive weeds
Thanks to ASU, there is some semblance of clarity in the four-team tie atop the Big 12 standings.
Let’s dive into the weeds of the conference tiebreaker process that was designed to sort out exactly the type of chaos.
When factoring in all the potential losses next weekend, there are simply too many permutations to consider.
So let’s keep things simple and assume that the four teams currently tied for first place (ASU, Brigham Young, Colorado and Iowa State) all win their finals and finish with a 7-2 conference record.
In this situation, the Sun Devils would advance to face Iowa State for the Big 12 title with a College Football Playoff berth on the line.
Here’s how to do it:
—Head-to-head tiebreaker would not apply, so the process would move to step two: registering against common opponents.
— ASU would finish 4-0 against opponents common to all tied teams and thus become the No. 1 seed.
Brigham Young and Iowa State would be tied at 3-1 and remain in the tiebreaker process.
Colorado, 2-2 against common opponents, would be eliminated.
— The tiebreaker would start again with only Brigham Young and Iowa State involved.
There are no head-to-head results to consider; they have the same record against common adversaries; and they have the same common loss (Kansas).
— At this point, the tiebreaker would move to step four: schedule strength in conference play.
The edge in this category goes to Iowa State, according to the Big 12.
The Sun Devils and Cyclones playing for the conference championship – and a playoff spot – is the matchup we didn’t know we needed.
Whether it’s the game in Arlington next month or Colorado taking on Brigham Young or another pairing materializing, the Big 12 is on the right track.
The conference without blue bloods but with prodigious parity has four teams alive during the final weekend.
Unless more chaos arises and additional teams are brought into the mix. Is anyone interested in a six-team tie?
3. Cal recovers
Two 90-yard touchdowns seven weeks apart defined the Berkeley football season.
The first came courtesy of Miami, which drove 92 yards in the final minutes to cap a out-of-nowhere 39-38 victory over the Bears in early October.
The brutal loss robbed Cal of its early season momentum and appeared to produce a multi-game hangover that left the Bears with a narrow path to the playoffs.
The second big moment came Saturday afternoon, when the Bears drove 98 yards late in the fourth quarter to complete a two-touchdown rally and defeat Stanford for the fourth straight season.
Without their 24-21 escape from Stanford’s surprise attempt, the Bears (6-5) would have faced a must-win game in the season finale at SMU.
Instead, their bunk is secure.
Technically, this will be the Bears’ fourth appearance in the last seven years. In fact, this will be their fourth in the past five years.
Remember, COVID hit the Bears for two seasons, not one, due to severe and prolonged restrictions imposed by Berkeley Public Health.
Given the obstacles to consistent success at Cal, the sweep of Justin Wilcox’s eight-year tenure was an unqualified success.
4. An OSU revival
Just when we thought Oregon State was done for 2024, the Beavers rose up to defeat Washington State on Saturday night and win the only Pac-12 conference game of the season.
Their riveting 41-38 victory easily reached the Power Five standard despite the relegation status afforded to the conference and its two member schools.
OSU trailed by seven points late, but scored on a 75-yard touchdown run, forced a WSU turnover, then celebrated when Everett Hayes made a 55-yard field goal with 20 seconds left.
The victory ended a five-game losing streak that included dismal performances against Cal, San Jose State and Air Force.
It also kept OSU’s playoff hopes alive, just barely.
The Beavers (5-6) must win Friday at Boise State to secure a bowl berth.
But win or lose on the blue turf, the win over WSU will make the offseason a lot sweeter for coach Trent Bray and his team.
5. Crosstown storyline twist
The final Power Four game on the penultimate Saturday of the regular season featured two notable twists: not only did USC recover from a fourth-quarter deficit to defeat UCLA, but the Trojans done with a solid defense.
After squandering one lead after another en route to a deeply disappointing season, the Trojans scored the final 10 points of the Rose Bowl to secure a 19-13 victory in the Crosstown Showdown.
The key play: a fourth-and-1 stop by the USC defense with five minutes remaining.
As a result, the Trojans (6-5) will go bowling regardless of the outcome of their season finale against Notre Dame.
This won’t quell fans’ frustration with coach Lincoln Riley, especially if USC loses to the Irish. But it does give the administration some momentum behind the decision to retain Riley (assuming they want him back).
UCLA’s season is over. Not officially, of course. (The Bruins play Fresno State next weekend.) But they were eliminated from the playoffs after back-to-back losses to Washington and USC sealed a losing record.
However, if you’re scoring at home, it’s reasonable to conclude that UCLA (4-7) got closer to maximizing its potential than USC as the schools navigated their new existence.
The Trojans had their sights set on the College Football Playoff, especially after the Week 1 win over LSU. Instead, the season turned into a weekly exercise in finding ways to lose.
This is not what the school envisioned for its inaugural season in the Big Ten.
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