SACRAMENTO — When he ran for governor in 2017, Gavin Newsom tapped into the latent anger among California liberals, boasting at one point on the campaign trail: “You want resistance to Donald Trump? Boy, go ahead, Donald.
That swagger helped Newsom get to office in 2018 and crystallized his reputation as a national leader of the anti-Trump resistance.
It’s less clear whether California’s next governor will follow Newsom’s lead.
The large group of Democrats running to succeed Newsom in 2026, and others weighing on campaigns, are still triangulating how best to position themselves against President-elect Trump — and whether it’s a posture that California voters even want.
Some candidates echoed Newsom with a strident tone. The week Trump was re-elected, Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta, who is considering a run for governor, stood at the Golden Gate Bridge and promised to use “the full force of the law” to defend Californians against the new administration.
“If Trump attacks your rights, I will be there,” Bonta said. “If Trump attacks your freedoms: I will be there. If Trump endangers your safety and well-being, I will be there.”
State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who entered the gubernatorial race last year, said the state would oppose any effort by the Trump administration to to roll back protections for LGBTQ+ students or dismantle the U.S. Department of Education. And Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis promised in a social media post that California “will never waver in protecting the freedom to control our bodies, marry who we love, and create opportunities for immigrants and ALL our families.”
The slight rightward shift of California voters this year has given other candidates pause. Preliminary election results suggest that several counties won by President Biden in 2020 leaned toward Trump this year, including San Bernardino County in Southern California, Butte County in Northern California and a large swath of the Valley from San Joaquin through Merced, Fresno and Stanislaus counties. a Times analysis shows.
Voters also inflicted resounding losses on the criminal justice reform movement, voting Dist. Attys. George Gascón and Pamela Price removed from office and approved a ballot initiative aimed at fighting crime with overwhelming support.
“Is it really the right decision to restart resistance to Trump given what just happened? said Sarah Anzia, a political scientist and professor of public policy at UC Berkeley. “I think it would call for some introspection and reflection on why Trump gained popularity in a state like this.”
Former state Comptroller Betty Yee, who entered the gubernatorial race in March, highlighted the state’s “shift toward Trump” in fundraising emails. As statewide vote tallies continue to be tallied, the change appears to be just under 5 points; Biden won 63.5% of California voters in 2020. Harris currently has 58.6%.
“That’s a pretty big shift, and while it’s easy to attribute the votes of millions of Californians to Trump’s hatred or deception, the fact is that more young people and more Black and Latino families are Americans voted for Trump than ever before”, Yes, I wrote.
In another post, she wrote that “Latinos of all ages and young people – the literal future of California, two groups that politicians have relied on for decades – have turned away from the Democratic Party in a historically mediocre in this election.”
However, managing these subtle shifts in the electorate can be tricky, and over-correcting too far to the right can be just as treacherous.
Despite performing better in California in 2024 than in 2020, Trump remains very unpopular with most Golden State voters. Historically, the party that doesn’t sit in the White House also makes big gains in the next general election, which will take place in 2026, when Californians will elect a new governor. Attacking Trump could therefore prove fruitful.
Toni Atkins, the former state Senate leader who is among a half-dozen candidates who have launched their 2026 gubernatorial campaigns, described the focus on Trump as a kind of necessary evil .
Everyone is jumping on “the anti-Trump bandwagon,” she said, which distracts from California’s major problems, such as the rising cost of living, but is essential to the philosophy of the state.
Atkins was the leader of the state Senate during the first Trump administration and led the campaign for Proposition 1, which enshrined the right to abortion in the state constitution after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v . Wade in 2022.
She said Trump’s re-election changes “the whole nature of this gubernatorial candidacy.”
“We have to worry about what this means for California,” she said, “because he came after us the first time.”
State Sen. Toni Atkins, right, speaks at a gubernatorial candidate forum in San Francisco in September alongside Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, who is also running to replace Gavin Newsom.
(Josh Edelson / For Time)
California sued the federal government more than 100 times during the first Trump administration, challenging the president’s authority over immigration, health care, education, gun control, consumers, census, U.S. Postal Service, civil rights issues and other topics.
On the campaign trail, Trump recently ridiculed Newsom as “Newscum” and called California and its Democratic leaders “radical left crazies.” He also focused on some of the state’s most high-profile leaders, including Sen.-elect Adam Schiff and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, calling them “enemies within.”
But California still needs support from the White House in many areas, including health insurance for low-income residents that requires federal health care waivers, and emergency disaster funding natural such as forest fires.
In a late October poll conducted by the Institute for Government Studies at UC Berkeley and co-sponsored by the Times, more than half of registered voters said they had no preference among already registered candidates. in the race. Among those who do, their favorites have not yet announced their campaign.
U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), who has not said whether she will run, would be the first or second choice of 13 percent of voters, according to the poll. Two Republicans weighing in on the campaigns, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and state Sen. Brian Dahle, who ran against Newsom in 2022, were the first or second choice of 12% and 11% of voters, respectively. registered voters.
Kounalakis and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa each have 7 percent support, as does Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who has not said whether he will run. Republican commentator Steve Hilton, who is also reportedly weighing a bid, would be the first or second choice of 6 percent of voters.
Thurmond, Atkins and Yee had the support of less than 5% of registered voters.
Although the political environment for the 2026 campaign appears to be evolving, lessons could be learned from the last time Californians chose a governor while Trump was in the White House.
In 2018, Villaraigosa ran a campaign that steered toward the middle ground, focusing on equal access to education, fiscal rigor, and his strong record as mayor in supporting the law enforcement and environmental protection. Newsom campaigned on a liberal and expensive agenda, including proposals for a state-sponsored health care system, universal preschool and increased funding for higher education.
Villaraigosa failed to make it out of the primary. Newsom won back-to-back terms.
