By Gram Slattery and Jonathan Landay
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Donald Trump’s advisers are publicly and privately floating proposals to end the war in Ukraine, which would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to a Reuters analysis of their statements and interviews with several people close to the president-elect of the United States.
Proposals from three key advisers, including Trump’s new envoy for Russia and Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including withdrawing Ukraine’s NATO membership .
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Trump’s advisers are reportedly trying to force Moscow and kyiv to negotiate with carrots and sticks, including withholding military aid to kyiv unless kyiv agrees to talks, but increasing aid if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses. .
Trump has repeatedly pledged during his election campaign to end the nearly three-year-old conflict within 24 hours of his Jan. 20 inauguration, or even sooner, but has yet to specify how.
Analysts and former national security officials seriously doubt whether Trump can deliver on such a commitment due to the complexity of the conflict.
However, taken together, his advisers’ statements suggest the potential contours of a Trump peace plan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, facing a labor shortage and growing territorial losses, has indicated he may be open to negotiations.
While remaining committed to joining NATO, he said this week that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to recover some of its occupied territories.
But Trump may find that Putin is unwilling to engage, analysts and former U.S. officials said, because he puts the Ukrainians on the back foot and may have more to gain by pursuing new land grabs.
“Putin is in no hurry,” said Eugene Rumer, a former U.S. intelligence analyst on Russia who is now a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.
The Russian leader, he said, appears unwilling to abandon his conditions for a truce and talks, including Ukraine abandoning its quest for NATO and the surrender of the four provinces that Putin claims it as part of Russia but does not fully control it, a claim kyiv rejects.
Putin, Rumer said, will likely bide his time, take more ground and wait to see what concessions, if any, Trump might offer to lure him to the negotiating table.
Reuters reported in May that Putin was ready to end the war with a negotiated ceasefire recognizing the current front lines, but was prepared to continue fighting if kyiv and the West did not respond. not.
Russia already controls all of Crimea, having unilaterally conquered it from Ukraine in 2014, and has since taken around 80% of Donbass – which includes Donetsk and Luhansk – as well as more than 70% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as well as small parts of Crimea. Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.
MORE THAN ONE PLAN
As of last week, Trump had yet to convene a central working group to develop a peace plan, according to four advisers who requested anonymity to describe private deliberations. Rather, several advisers presented their ideas to each other in public forums and — in some cases — to Trump, they said.
Ultimately, a peace deal will likely depend on direct personal engagement between Trump, Putin and Zelenskiy, the advisers said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was “not possible to comment on individual statements without having an idea of the plan as a whole.”
Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt noted that Trump said he would “do what is necessary to restore peace and rebuild American strength and deterrence on the world stage.”
A representative for Trump did not immediately respond to a follow-up question about whether the president-elect still plans to resolve the conflict within a day of taking office.
The Ukrainian government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A former Trump national security official involved in the transition said there were three main proposals: Kellogg’s sketch, one from Vice President-elect JD Vance and another put forward by Richard Grenell, the former chief Trump’s acting intelligence chief.
Kellogg’s plan, co-written with former National Security Council official Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump earlier this year, calls for freezing the current battle lines.
Kellogg and Fleitz did not respond to requests for comment. Their project was first reported by Reuters.
Trump would only supply more US weapons to Kyiv if he agreed to peace talks. At the same time, he would warn Moscow that he would increase U.S. aid to Ukraine if Russia refused negotiations. Ukraine’s membership in NATO would be suspended.
Ukraine would also be offered U.S. security guarantees, which could include an increase in its arms deliveries after a deal is reached, according to the proposal.
In a June interview with Times Radio, a British digital channel, Sebastian Gorka, one of Trump’s new deputy national security advisers, said Trump told him he would force Putin into negotiations by threatening to deliver unprecedented weapons to Ukraine if Putin refused.
Gorka, reached by phone, called Reuters “fake news” and declined to provide further details.
Vance, who as a U.S. senator opposed aid to Ukraine, floated another idea in September.
He told US podcaster Shawn Ryan that a deal would likely include a demilitarized zone on existing front lines that would be “heavily fortified” to prevent further Russian incursions. His proposal would deny Kyiv membership in NATO.
Representatives for Vance did not make him available for comment and he has not yet provided additional details.
Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, advocated the creation of “autonomous zones” in eastern Ukraine during a Bloomberg roundtable in July, but did not elaborate. He also suggested that Ukraine’s NATO membership was not in the United States’ interests.
Grenell, who did not respond to a request for comment, has not yet secured a position in the new administration, although he is still listening to Trump on European issues, a senior official told Reuters. foreign policy advisor to Trump.
This person said Grenell was one of the few people to attend a September meeting in New York between Trump and Zelenskiy.
LIKELY GROWTH
Some elements of the proposals would likely be rejected by Zelenskiy, who has included an invitation to NATO in his own “Victory Plan,” as well as European allies and some U.S. lawmakers, analysts and former security officials say national.
Last week, Ukraine’s foreign minister sent a letter to his NATO counterparts urging them to issue an invitation to become a member at a meeting of foreign ministers on Tuesday.
Some European allies have expressed willingness to increase aid to Ukraine, and U.S. President Joe Biden continues to send weapons. This could deprive Trump of some leverage to push Kyiv to the table.
The Kellogg plan, which hinges on increasing aid to Ukraine if Putin doesn’t come to the negotiating table, could face a backlash in Congress, where some of Trump’s closest allies oppose for additional military aid to this Eastern European country.
“I don’t think anyone has a realistic plan to end this situation,” said Rumer, a former U.S. intelligence officer.
(Reporting by Gram Slattery and Jonathan Landay in Washington; additional reporting by Tom Balmforth in Kyiv and Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow; editing by Ross Colvin and Howard Goller)
