Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria was a “direct result” of Israel’s military campaign against Iran and its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.
“This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East,” he said.
But in a sign of the potential danger Israel feels from unknown leaders in Damascus, Netanyahu ordered the army to seize the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria.
“Together with the Minister of Defense, and with the full support of the Cabinet, I yesterday ordered the IDF to take control of the buffer zone and nearby dominant positions,” he said during his visit to the Golan Heights. “We will not allow any hostile forces to establish themselves on our border.”
It is the first time Israeli troops will be stationed in the buffer zone since a 1974 agreement establishing the Line of Control between Israel and Syria, although they have entered the area in the past for brief periods. The buffer zone, a demilitarized zone in Syria and administered by its government, was established in 1974 and was monitored by United Nations peacekeepers. Israel conquered the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and annexed it in 1981.
Israeli leaders are watching events across the Syrian border with a mixture of worry and joy, as 50 years of détente were upended in a matter of hours.
“We don’t know much,” said Boaz Shapira, a researcher at the Alma Foundation, a think tank dedicated to issues in northern Israel. “The situation we were used to in Syria in the past – 50 years under Assad’s rule – has completely changed. »
Bashar al-Assad was hardly an ally, but there was an agreement that allowed the countries to coexist. Although Israel has occasionally offered care to victims of Syria’s civil war, it has maintained official neutrality in the conflict. The Israeli military has also for years targeted the supply lines of Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, in Syria – including killing Iranian military commanders at the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April – but has avoided targeting the Assad regime itself.
The rebels’ rapid capture of Damascus means Israeli leaders will have to assess the implications for their own security.
Iran has now lost one of its most important bulwarks in the region. This will be cause for celebration in Israel, which has been fighting Iranian-backed forces in Gaza (Hamas) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) since October last year.
Netanyahu, who said the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a step toward changing the “balance of power in the region for years to come,” will see it as a step toward that goal.
Mordechai Kedar, who specialized in Syrian affairs during his 25-year career in Israeli military intelligence, said events in Syria were a domino effect of Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7. “It’s not just Israel, it’s the whole Middle East that’s going to celebrate,” he told CNN.
A person waves a Syrian opposition flag in a Druze village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, December 8, 2024, as men celebrate the fall of the Assad regime. -Stoyan Nenov/Reuters
The collapse of Assad’s regime is a “big blow” to Iran, said Amos Yadlin, a former major general in the Israeli army who also served as head of the military intelligence directorate.
“The rebels tearing down the posters of (Iranian commander Qasem) Soleimani and Nasrallah from the Iranian embassy in Damascus illustrate the seriousness of the blow to the axis,” he said. “Rebuilding Hezbollah looks even more difficult with the loss of Syria, which provided a logistical rearguard for the weapons of Assad, Iran and Russia. »
On the other hand, no one really knows – including in Israel – who the rebels now control Syria are and how they will exercise their power.
The offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The American government still has a $10 million bounty on the head of its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Kedar said that despite their radical roots, early indications were positive. “So far, they’re pretty rational,” he said. “For example, they let the government run the country. »
Jolani called on rebel forces to leave state institutions unharmed. “All military forces present in the city of Damascus are strictly prohibited from approaching public institutions, which will remain under the supervision of the former Prime Minister until their official handover, and it is also prohibited to shoot balls in the air,” he wrote on Telegram.
“Here, they learn from the mistakes of the Americans in Iraq. They don’t want to destroy the country. They want the system to work – of course under different rules and direction. This is a very rational way to run the country.
Yadlin said Jolani had “shown great political sophistication and conquered Syria almost without a fight.”
“In the short term, the rebels do not pose a threat to Israel,” he said. “When he has to establish his power in Syria, he will not involve himself in the most powerful military force in the region. Israel must shape the rules of the game against Syria in the same aggressive way it does in Lebanon. »
This view is not universal. Israeli Minister of Diaspora and Combating Anti-Semitism Amichai Chiklisaid said in a statement that “the bottom line is that most of Syria is now under the control of groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and Daesh.” He called on the Israeli military to establish full control over the buffer zone that has existed since 1974 between territories controlled by Israel and Syria.
Indeed, Israel’s top priority will be to secure its border with Syria. The Israeli military said the deployment of troops to the Golan buffer zone was intended to “ensure the security of the Golan Heights communities and citizens of Israel.”
Shapira said he doubted Israel would want to provoke Damascus’ new rulers by entering the Syrian-controlled Golan. “Taking more territory means we have to deal with other players who might not be very happy about it,” he added.
“There are dozens of different militias,” Shapira said. “This is going to be very difficult for Israel.”
The Israeli military, in its statement on operations in the Golan, said: “The State of Israel does not interfere in the internal conflict in Syria. »
Israel’s top political and security leaders have remained largely silent on events in Syria – no doubt, as they weigh how to respond.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid said Assad’s ouster underscored the need “to create a strong regional coalition with Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords countries (Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Sudan) in order to jointly fight against regional instability. The Iranian axis has weakened considerably and Israel must strive for an overall political outcome that will also help it in Gaza and the West Bank. »
This story has been updated with additional developments.
Abeer Salman and Mike Schwartz of CNN in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
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