Russia is withdrawing its ships from its naval base in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, it has been reported, amid uncertainty over how Vladimir Putin will be able to maintain his springboard in the Mediterranean Sea without an ally key to power.
The march of Syrian rebels led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which brought down the Assad regime, was both a loss of face for Putin and a significant strategic blow for Russia given the importance of the military means available to it in the country.
Satellite images showed Monday that Russia had withdrawn Mediterranean Task Force ships from Tartus, which for decades had given it a port on NATO’s southern flank and a staging post for operations. in the Black Sea and Africa.
“They [Russia] “We need some sort of foothold in the Mediterranean, especially because the Turkish straits have been closed to them because of the war in Ukraine,” said retired US Vice Admiral Robert Murrett. Information week, referring to Ankara blocking the Bosphorus Strait to military ships under the Montreux Convention.
“They need good ports in the Eastern Mediterranean. Tartus was the best option they had; they could probably try to find others, but none of them will be as good as this,” added Murrett , assistant director of Syracuse University. Institute for Security Policy and Law.
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There are different reports about what happened to the Russian ships. One of those from open source intelligence analyst MT Anderson said that the Russian ships, probably the Admiral Gorshkov And Admiral Grigorovich Kilo-class frigates, submarine and tanker Novorossiysk Vyazma were in a holding pattern five miles west of the port.
The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR), which would appreciate any Russian strategic losses, said on Tuesday that the military infrastructure in Tartus was being closed and evacuated forces and assets should head to the ports of the Baltic. But the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday it was unclear whether the withdrawal of the ships was part of a broader evacuation or aimed at better protecting them.
“You need to have a stable presence and without this base, Russia’s presence in the Mediterranean will be called into question,” said Yörük Işık, director of Istanbul-based consultancy Bosphorus Observer. News week.
“They will try to reactivate the old Soviet network, which they are already doing to some extent,” he said. “They frequently use Algerian military pillars and, to some extent, they use Libya, which is less stable.”
“Russia will try to convince Algeria to use more of its piers which are in good condition. It will perhaps try to do something in Benghazi and maybe even in Tunisia, but it will have a very negative effect.”
Syrian opposition leaders reportedly guaranteed the security of Russian military institutions, while former Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said the new authorities would decide their fate.
Russia also plans to evacuate personnel and equipment from its other major military asset, the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia province.
But the potential loss of Tartus will be a blow to Russia, especially given its long-term plans for the base, which included signing a 49-year lease in 2015 and launching Ukrainian drones and missiles repeated strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Russia has moved its ships away from its main hub of Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea, further east to Novorossiysk, in Russia’s Krasnodar region, but they remain vulnerable to strikes.
Işık said this Ukrainian naval success, combined with Russia’s elimination from much of the Black Sea – and loss of its presence in the Mediterranean – places Turkey in its “most militarily advantageous positions since the end of the cold war.
“This is a major problem for Russia, it is losing its ability to operate,” he said. News week contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
