Analytics help powerhouse Amador Valley reach CIF Division 3-AA championship game

Analytics help powerhouse Amador Valley reach CIF Division 3-AA championship game

Amador Valley’s offense didn’t do much after scoring touchdowns in the Dons’ 44-33 win over McClymonds in the NorCal 3-AA championship game last weekend.

They were too busy setting up their two-point conversion attempt. Coach Danny Jones’ boys don’t hesitate for a moment, and why should they?

The hyper-aggressive philosophy that helped propel the Pleasanton school into Friday’s CIF 3-AA championship game against Frontier-Bakersfield at Long Beach City College is rooted in cold, hard statistics.

Why accept that a touchdown would likely turn into seven points, when the numbers said scoring two was the right decision?

“We checked and by week three we had about an 80 percent success rate,” Jones told the Bay Area News Group after the NorCal game.

Receiver Aidan Foley said that number decreased only slightly as the year went on, with the team passing for 47 of its 65 touchdowns.

This tactic was born out of necessity after the team’s kicker was injured earlier in the year. But now the Dons are all-in on the two-or-nothing strategy that has helped AV score at least 30 points in each of its last five games.

“When he told us the percentage, that we were going to get to a 75 percent success rate, everyone was like, ‘Let’s keep doing this and keep going this way,’” Foley said.

Amador Valley (10-4) beat Las Lomas, Windsor and Bishop O’Dowd to win the North Coast Section Division II title, then beat perennial Oakland powerhouse McClymonds to continue the all-time program’s first sectional crown with a NorCal title.

“It’s for all the teams that came before us, and for all the players and their families who weren’t able to have this opportunity,” said Jones, Amador’s coach for nine years. “It’s for all those guys.”

Amador Valley quarterback Tristan Tia (3) throws against McClymonds during the third quarter of their North Coast Section Division 3-AA high school football championship Friday, Dec. 6, 2024, at McClymonds High School in Oakland, California (D. Ross Cameron for the Bay Area News Group)
Amador Valley quarterback Tristan Tia (3) was key to the Don’s explosive offense (D. Ross Cameron for Bay Area News Group)

The main reason for Amador’s success is the play of its elite dual-threat quarterback Tristan Tia, an Oregon State commit who has thrown for 3,758 yards, rushed for 871 yards and completed 50 affected.

When the Dons need a big play, he most often succeeds with a crucial run or pinpoint throw. On two-point conversions, a sneak from the 6-foot-3 Tia equals an almost automatic two-pointer.

“I go with the flow and do what I know I can do. I know I worked hard for this, so it’s great to see that hard work is helping us thrive on the field,” Tia said.

Although Tia, receiver Anthony Harrington and the explosive passing game get most of the hype, Amador also has a reliable running game.

Ismael Duenas has accumulated 1,067 rushing yards, surpassing 100 yards in each of his last five games. The 200-pound bruiser is skilled at slashing light boxes that are terrified by Tia’s big-arm games in the air.

“Ish is a great kid and he runs really hard,” Jones said. “Whether we’re running the rock or throwing the ball, we can be effective at both.” »

Amador’s final opponent will be formidable. Frontier, which beat Murrieta Mesa 39-7 in the SoCal region, has a defense led by strong passers Logan Slaton and LJ Riley.

But with the Dons’ red-hot offense and mathematically sound offense firing on all cylinders heading into Friday’s championship game, Frontier might have a hard time finding a solution.

“I don’t think anyone can stop us,” Foley said. “You know, Tristan offers so much versatility because he can run, he can throw, and then we have Ish who can just run downhill.”