After a year of war in Gaza, American diplomacy has so far proven useless: ANALYSIS

During Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s first emergency mission to the Middle East following the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack, he emerged from a marathon session of meetings at an Israeli command center that continued into the early hours of the morning to announce that President Joe Biden will soon visit the country “to reaffirm United States solidarity with Israel.”

But the announcement announcing the president’s trip was more than just a show of support. It was a reward that had been brandished before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the nine hours of negotiations that preceded it, as American officials demanded that Israel end its total blockade of the Gaza Strip so that desperately needed humanitarian aid can enter.

Just ten days after the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration was already facing a difficult diplomatic reality: as difficult as it is to negotiate with your enemies, it is often even more difficult to deal with your allies.

After a full year of fighting, efforts to restore peace have so far proved futile, and mitigating the worst consequences of the conflict continues to be a daily struggle. As the crisis continues to deepen, experts and officials are looking at how the United States influenced the war between Israel and Hamas over the past 12 months, and what might come next.

A fixed playbook for a volatile crisis

Shortly after the militants who carried out the October 7, 2023, attacks retreated to Gaza with more than 200 hostages in tow, it became clear to U.S. officials that a negotiated deal was likely the only way to save the majority of captives.

By Thanksgiving, mediators had reached an agreement for a temporary truce and prisoner exchange that ultimately allowed more than 100 Israelis and foreign nationals to return home.

By then, the Biden administration was already struggling to reconcile its unwavering military support for Israel amid the staggering loss of life in Gaza and was acutely aware of the political blowback at home. White House and State Department officials held their breath when the short ceasefire began in November 2023, hoping it could be extended until an uneasy peace turned into status quo. what.

Those dreams quickly evaporated. Blinken had visited Israel again to try to extend the pause in fighting, but before he left, fighting had resumed.

The Biden administration and other mediators have since sought a similar deal, pushing for several rounds of indirect talks that ultimately ended in frustrating collapse, even as the rewards for both sides in the conflict have diminished.

Nearly 100 hostages are still believed to be held by Hamas in Gaza, but dozens have died and officials say the planned measures, if implemented, would only lead to freedom initially. of a dozen living captives.

As for Hamas, many Biden administration officials have quietly expressed deep skepticism that its leader, Yahya Sinwar, would ever accept a deal that would not guarantee his continued rule over Gaza — a prospect that Israel and the United States categorically rejects it.

But despite the impasse, the administration continued to doggedly pursue an agreement in a manner reminiscent of the apocryphal quote often attributed to scientist Albert Einstein: “Madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. »

Marina Ottaway, a Middle East specialist at the Woodrow Wilson Center, said there were many reasons for repeated diplomatic failures, but the nature of the parties involved cursed efforts to achieve lasting peace from the start.

“The main players in the regional drama do not recognize the international order of the 21st century and are unwilling to respect its rules,” she said. “The best diplomacy cannot do much in the face of actors who only play by their own rules.”

Ottaway said Hamas and Hezbollah are motivated by their ideological values ​​rather than global norms and argues that Israel is also very resistant to these norms.

“Yes, it is a state, an internationally recognized entity with a seat in the United Nations and other international organizations, but it does not recognize the legitimacy of these organizations or their right to impose restrictions on its actions,” she declared.

Senior U.S. officials have also remained myopic about the administration’s long-term vision for Middle East peace and its cornerstone: the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

On the eve of October 7, 2023, the two countries seemed closer than ever to an agreement. But Saudi leaders have repeatedly insisted that normalization cannot take place until an independent Palestinian state is created, a term the Israeli government now views as a failure.

“US policymakers appear to have learned no lessons from the past year of conflict,” wrote Dana El Kurd, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Center in Washington, in an article for Foreign Policy.

“Discussions about the ‘day after’ in Gaza remain disconnected from reality,” she added. “Without deviation from the current path, the tragedy will only continue. »

Strategic drift and expanded war

Beyond ending the war in Gaza, preventing its spread to other regions has been the Biden administration’s most pressing goal in the Middle East for most of the past year.

After simmering tensions between Hezbollah and Israel exploded last month on the country’s northern border with Lebanon, the United States first pushed for a truce — then all but abandoned its efforts to secure a ceasefire. -fire, openly supporting Israel’s campaign as it began eliminating major terrorism targets.

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow in US foreign policy at the Middle East Institute, said the Biden administration is now trapped in this cycle of reactivity, which he attributes to what he says is its “wishful thinking” and “reluctance to exert leverage. to achieve its own goals.

“The fundamental impetus of the Biden administration [is] “The current crisis will likely shape and define America’s relationship with the region for years to come,” he said.

Israel’s intensifying battle against Hezbollah – Iran’s best-armed proxy – and its promise to retaliate after a direct attack launched by Tehran threaten to plunge the Middle East into regional war.

But some see it as a glimmer of hope. Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the expanding conflict presented an opportunity to reduce Iran’s influence in the region once and for all.

“Israel is finally implementing a victory strategy to defeat Iran and its axis of terror in the Middle East,” he said, adding that a positive outcome would be “not only a victory for Israel but an achievement major for American grand strategy.

Diminishing alliance, diminishing influence

Biden has long viewed foreign diplomacy as a strength – an area in which his personal relationships with world leaders have produced favorable results time and time again throughout his storied career.

The relationship between the president and the Israeli prime minister has always been complicated, but characterized overall by begrudging mutual respect. On a few occasions over the last year, Biden managed to persuade Netanyahu to make significant concessions – including in an April phone call where he convinced him to take steps to protect aid workers in Gaza after an Israeli strike that killed seven people. Central kitchen workers.

But now, Biden and Netanyahu have not spoken since August. The prime minister visited New York at the end of September, but the two leaders did not meet. Additionally, Blinken has not visited Israel since the summer.

Joe Macaron, an international scholar at the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program, argued that as the administration’s influence over the Israeli government has eroded, America’s influence over the region as a whole has also eroded.

“The United States is now seen as complicit with Netanyahu or incapable of influencing a key ally,” he said. “The damage to the image and interests of the United States in the Middle East should not be underestimated, and the long-term game is the most effective; there is no silver bullet to the regime’s threats Iranian and its proxies.”

With just over 100 days left in the president’s term, it appears that charting the path forward for the U.S.-Israel alliance is a task that will fall to the next commander in chief. Biden marked the first anniversary of October 7 not with a call to Netanyahu, but with a minute of silence at the White House.