On stage at the Republican National Convention on Tuesday, supporters of former President Trump described migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border as dangerous gang members, sex traffickers and terrorists who put American families “in grave danger.”
“Joe Biden’s rise to power has also led to an increase in violent crimes committed by illegal immigrants,” a narrator says in a video shown at the convention. “Horrible crimes, murders, gang attacks on our police, sex crimes against children, and the brutal murder of a nursing student on her college campus.”
A few days earlier, Trump had almost been killed by an American citizen. Thomas Matthew Crooks was registered to vote in Pennsylvania, and only American citizens can register.
After the assassination attempt, Trump continued to push his campaign message relentlessly, portraying immigrants as the source of violence in the United States. Yet the shooting that injured Trump in the ear was allegedly carried out by someone who fits the typical profile of a targeted violence perpetrator: a young white man described by some former classmates as a loner who was bullied.
“Targeted violence is often carried out by angry people who don’t have a well-thought-out narrative but are more impulsive and idiosyncratic,” said Brian Levin, founder of the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism at CSU San Bernardino.
He said most targeted violence is committed by young white men in their teens or early 20s. Studies show that immigrants commit fewer crimes than U.S.-born citizens.
Using data collected between 2012 and 2018 from the Texas Department of Public Safety, researchers at the University of Wisconsin found that undocumented immigrants had significantly lower crime rates than native-born citizens for a number of criminal offenses, including violent crime, drug crime and property crime.
A similar study by Alex Nowrasteh of the Libertarian Cato Institute found that the homicide rate among undocumented immigrants was 14 percent lower than that of U.S.-born citizens. Texas is the only state that keeps data on the immigration status of people arrested for specific crimes.
Ran Abramitzky, a Stanford University professor who helped lead a nationally representative study comparing the incarceration rates of immigrants and U.S.-born citizens from 1870 to 2020, recently told the Times that “as a group, immigrants have had lower incarceration rates than U.S.-born citizens for 150 years.”
But political fear ignores facts, Levin said, which is why the GOP will continue to blame immigrants for violent crime.
“The anecdotal image, the scary image of someone different is going to be what’s going to sell that fear,” he said. “Political theater involves the construction, or at least the amplification or exaggeration of grievances, and that’s problematic.”
Even if the man who shot Trump doesn’t fit the profile of the man he accuses of committing crimes, the shooting at his Pennsylvania rally Saturday could make it easier for Republicans to present a broader narrative to voters about the need for law and order. That could lead to a confusion between violent extremism among American citizens and violent crime committed by immigrants.
“I think there will certainly be an attempt to connect the attempted assassination of the former president to the fact that we live in a dark and frightening world of American carnage,” said Democratic strategist Maria Cardona. “He will try to paint it all in one stroke.”
Democrats can use that interpretation to their advantage, she said, by pointing out the truth: Border arrests are down, crime is down and immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than U.S.-born citizens.
GOP strategist Matt Terrill said crime and safety are already top concerns for many voters, who view the issue of security holistically, considering not just immigration but also concerns such as violence at protests and domestic terrorism.
“What happened on Saturday only adds to the crime and security problems,” he said. “What they’re looking for now is someone who can take charge of this issue.”
The Trump campaign and the Republican National Convention did not respond to a request for comment.
The top priority of the Republican Party’s platform, which will be put to the vote this week, is to “SEAL THE BORDER AND STOP THE INVASION OF MIGRANTS.”
“We will end the invasion of the southern border, restore law and order, protect American sovereignty, and deliver a safe and prosperous future for all Americans,” the platform states.
Trump himself has echoed Adolf Hitler’s statements claiming that immigrants entering illegally are “poisoning the blood of our country” and plans to dramatically expand detention capacity and deport millions of people a year.
At Tuesday’s convention, speakers all stressed migration as a threat to public safety.
“Look at the border,” said Nikki Haley, a former Trump rival. “It’s the biggest threat Americans face.”
“We cannot survive the dramatic increase in violence, crime and drugs that Democrats’ policies have brought to our communities,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson. “And we cannot allow the millions of illegal immigrants they have allowed to cross our borders to harm our citizens, drain our resources or disrupt our elections.”
“Open borders are often presented as a benevolent and virtuous attitude,” said Michael Morin, the brother of Rachel Morin, a 37-year-old mother of five killed while jogging in Maryland last August. The man charged with her murder had entered the United States illegally.
“But there is nothing compassionate about allowing violent criminals to come into our country and steal children from their mothers,” Morin said.
Levin, an extremism expert at Cal State San Bernardino, said Trump’s impending assassination and the resulting messaging are making people more susceptible to conspiracies and stereotypes.
“There is a narrative of fear behind all of this, and then there is a cruel combination of alleged attackers who are threatening the American tradition. In other words, these people are coming into our country and speaking other languages and practicing other religions,” he said.
Sonja Diaz, who was executive director of UCLA’s Institute of Latino Politics and Policy and now directs the Latina Futures 2050 Lab, believes the fallout from the Trump assassination attempt will reinvigorate the idea of law and order, which could reinforce exclusionary law enforcement policies that negatively affect immigrants.
“That rhetoric has been ‘us versus them,’ and that ‘them’ has really been located on the border between the United States and Mexico,” she said.
