Neither the threat of forest fires nor catastrophic floods have prevented thousands of Americans from migrating to places in Texas and Florida where extreme weather disasters cause increasing damage year after year.
Between July 2022 and July 2023, nearly 69,000 According to a new analysis from Redfin, 24,000 Americans bought homes in flood-prone counties in the Sunshine State, including Brevard, Manatee and Lee. During the same period, about 24,000 more Americans became new residents in Texas’ most flood-prone areas, including Brazoria and Fort Bend counties, the online real estate brokerage reported.
The influx of new residents occurs as old residents flee.
“Rising insurance costs and increasing natural disasters are pushing thousands of Americans out of at-risk areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by others for whom climate change is not a primary concern,” Elijah de la Campa, Redfin’s senior economist, said in the report.
A part-time paradise at a high price
Depending on where they move in the state, new residents of Florida’s at-risk areas should expect to find themselves in the path of a hurricane or other types of severe storms.
Most recently, Hurricane Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, touched land The hurricane made landfall Monday near Steinhatchee, a small northern Florida community with a population of less than 1,000. The hurricane has so far knocked out power to nearly 300,000 Floridians before being downgraded to a tropical storm.
Moving to Florida and Texas will also likely mean higher homeowners insurance for new residents, as natural disasters have caused Insurance companies to increase annual coverage rates.
Home insurance rates increased by 15% and 36% in Florida and Texas, respectively, between 2022 and 2023, according to data from S&P Global. An Orlando, Florida, resident, told CBS News in June that his home insurance increased from $1,500 to $6,000 per year for a 2024 policy.
When asked by clients how much they’re willing to pay for homeowners insurance in Florida, Rafael Corrales, a Miami-based Redfin real estate agent, told potential buyers it all depends on how close they want to be to the coast.
“If you’re thinking about buying a home in Florida, you can’t be near water without being in a flood zone,” Corrales said in a statement. “If you’re within three miles of the coast, Mother Nature is going to visit you,” he said, adding, “That’s the price you pay for living in paradise.”
From one state of wildfires to another
Counties with a high risk of wildfires also saw an influx of new residents, with 63,365 more people entering high-fire-risk states in 2023 than leaving them, according to Redfin.
Texas is at the forefront of this trend.
About 35,000 new residents have migrated to areas threatened by wildfires in Texas, including Grayson, Hunt, Midland, Parker and Wise counties, according to Redfin’s analysis. That contrasts with the roughly 17,357 Americans who have fled wildfire-prone California counties, including Lassen, Solano and Napa. The exodus of California residents marks a reversal from 2022, indicating that people may be increasingly sensitive to fire risk in the Golden State.
Texas has large tracts of undeveloped land near developed land, making some parts of the state particularly vulnerable to wildfires, Redfin noted. The Lone Star state had the second-highest number of wildfires last year — 7,102 — behind only California (7,364), Redfin said. One reason for migration from one high-fire risk area to another is the cost of living, according to the report.
“For many Americans, the cost of living and proximity to family are more important than disaster risk, which can seem less immediate and more abstract,” Redfin’s de la Campa said. “But the cost-benefit calculus appears to be changing in places like California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and a surge in large-scale disasters have had a tangible impact on residents and made national headlines.”
