The thunder of war is rumbling ever closer to our shores as we confront military threats in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Our adversaries are multiplying and, in some cases, joining forces. Russia, Iran, North Korea, and even China have stated their goal of working more closely together to challenge Western democracy and the international rules that govern how we live, trade, and compete.
Every British prime minister recites the mantra: “My first duty is to keep the nation safe.” But over the past 35 years, most of them, both Labour and Conservative, have been quick to cut defence spending.
The reality is that prime ministers love to bask in the glory of the Red Arrows or the pomp of Trooping the Colour, but they don’t want to pay for it.
Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launchers march on Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in central Moscow on May 9, 2022
The reality is that prime ministers love to bask in the glory of the Red Arrows, pictured above Buckingham Palace in 2023, but they don’t want to pay for it.
The new Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Roly Walker, was right to warn that the army must be ready to fight a war within three years.
When I became Defence Secretary in 2019, I inherited a department that had suffered 30 years of cuts. Labour had cut defence spending from 3% of GDP to around 2.6% and that figure has continued to fall, with brutal consequences for morale in the armed forces. I estimated that our land forces were 15 years behind their peers.
That is why I set aside £30 billion to modernise the military by 2030. Shortly after I left office last year, that reserve was scrapped, and £800 million was slashed from the budget.
Our adversaries sense Britain’s lack of resolve and recognise that for many years we have been plundering our defence budget to fund health care, roads and welfare benefits.
All these factors, together with international aid, have left our forces exhausted and poorly equipped.
As Secretary of State for Security and Defence from 2016 to 2023, Downing Street did not appreciate my talking about the growing threat. Today’s 10 Downing Street will be no different, perhaps even worse.
Because if the public knew the true level of danger, the Cabinet might have to make uncomfortable decisions. It might have to cut national budgets. The Treasury hates defence. For it, defending the realm involves long-term commitments and difficult choices.
No other department in Whitehall has been in this situation, and certainly not the NHS, which has sometimes received budget increases twice a year, yet failed to increase productivity. When I was defence secretary, we balanced the budget three years in a row.
It is irresponsible to believe that we can invest in defence at the last minute. In too many conflicts, we and our allies have been caught off guard by ‘fighting yesterday’s wars’ with obsolete equipment. Under the last Labour government, scores of British soldiers died in Afghanistan because they were sent to war with equipment designed for other conflicts.
SAS reserve leader Major Sebastian Morley described the government’s failure to provide adequate equipment as “cavalry at best, criminal at worst”.
General Sir Roly Walker is also right to echo a warning I made two years ago: by the end of this decade, Britain will find itself in either an all-out “hot” conflict or a gruelling “cold” war. We must be prepared to deter – or defend.
If you think this is alarmist, consider current international tensions and what the cost of bad decisions or bad outcomes could mean tomorrow.
Vladimir Putin has sent more than half a million Russian soldiers to their deaths or to hospitals. In his eyes, he is already at war with us. He regularly mentions nuclear threats.
Russian Kilo-class submarines have sailed in the Irish Sea for the first time. The military-grade nerve agent Novichok has been deployed in Salisbury and Russian assassins are active across Europe.
In the Middle East, Iran is on the verge of enriching uranium to the point of acquiring nuclear weapons.
The US and Israel say they will not let this happen. But Iran is already sending cruise missiles to Houthi militias in Yemen to target British ships.
Meanwhile, China, like a sleeping dragon with one eye open, is watching to see whether the West will remain united or fall apart.
It remains to be seen whether Donald Trump’s lack of resolve on Ukraine will translate into a similar lack of resolve when it comes to defending Taiwan.
The UK’s security at the end of this decade will be directly affected by how much we are prepared to invest in our forces now.
We started in 2019. Now we must modernize and demonstrate our determination to defend our allies and ourselves.
Sir Keir Starmer cannot just say “when economic conditions allow”. We do not say that about healthcare and we have not hidden behind the economy during the Covid pandemic.
We must mobilise the resources needed to deter these threats and defend our values. The Daily Mail has campaigned tirelessly to ensure that cuts do not leave Britain defenceless.
Devastation caused by Russian missile strike on Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in kyiv earlier this month
A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile is tested from the Plesetsk launch pad in northwestern Russia.
But the horrendous shortfall between the Ministry of Defence’s budget and the cost of restoring our desired military capabilities has soared to £16.9 billion – the biggest gap ever recorded, according to a Commons committee.
In fact, MPs said the real figure could be closer to £29bn, as the military “may need around £12bn more”.
We need to find that money. This increase in our defense budget is the best step we can take to prevent future conflicts.
Some things are too important for political games.
Defense ensures that energy prices and supplies are not held hostage by our adversaries and directly contributes to stopping migration from war zones.
The British military presence in Afghanistan, before the disastrous deal between the US and the Allies, helped reduce migration flows. This has proven to be far less costly than the multi-billion pound cost of housing refugees from these conflicts.
The Roman writer Vegetius wrote in the fourth century: “Let him who desires peace prepare for war.” Unfortunately, that time has come. But we must prepare.
