After several years of decline, California’s population grew by nearly a quarter of a million residents in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, a rebound that returns the Golden State nearly to its pre-pandemic numbers .
The numbers are not all rosy. California has experienced a slower growth rate than the country as a whole, particularly the large, fast-growing Southern states. It also experienced the largest loss of domestic migration in the country.
But experts say California’s new population figures represent a significant turnaround.
“The big picture is that California is growing again,” said Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. “It shows that California has a pretty healthy growth rate… The number of people coming to the state from out of state has increased, the number of people moving to other states has decreased. There are still significant flows to other states, but they are not as significant as before.”
While California’s population increase of 232,570 people between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024 represents the largest numerical population increase in the West, it lags behind Texas , which increased its population by 562,941 people, and Florida, which increased by 467,347 people. .
California’s population increase of 0.6% is also below the national average (0.9%) and was far exceeded by the District of Columbia (2.2%), Florida (2%). and Texas (1.8%).
During the COVID-19 pandemic, California’s population fell after a decade of steady growth. After reaching its highest population level on record in 2020 with more than 39.5 million residents, the state lost almost 1% of its population as of July 1, 2021, as it introduced a series of restrictions, including the closure of offices, retail stores and restaurants. and schools.
California remains the most populous state in the country with 39,431,263 residents, far more than Texas’ 31 million and Florida’s 23 million. But its overall population remains at 124,000 inhabitants below its 2020 peak.
California’s population decline was seen by the right as a sign of the failure of its liberal progressivism. Critics of the Republican Party, such as Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, have portrayed California as a state in decline, arguing that in recent years its residents were fleeing to red states because California was become a bastion of high crime and unaffordable housing. , excessive regulation and wacky left-wing ideology.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office celebrated the Census Bureau estimate, released the same week that the California Department of Finance released data also showing the state’s population growth.
“People from across the country and world come to the Golden State to pursue the California dream and experience success in the world’s fifth-largest economy, strengthening local communities, regional economies and the future of our state,” said Brendan Richards, Newsom’s spokesman.
California’s population growth comes largely from international migration and natural population increase (the net result of births minus deaths) – not domestic migration.
Census Bureau estimates show that California saw the largest loss of domestic migration in the country – minus 239,575 people – while Texas added 85,267.
The main driver of California’s population growth is people coming from outside the United States: the state experienced the second largest net gain in international migration in the country, attracting 361,057 people from other countries, less than Florida’s 411,322, but ahead of Texas’ 319,569.
California also had the second-highest natural increase in the country – births exceeding deaths – with a net gain of 110,466 people, just below Texas’ 158,753.
Beyond the rhetoric of the culture wars between red and blue states, population displacement has the potential to reshape the national potential landscape.
In 2021, new census data caused the state to lose a representative in Congress for the first time in its history, dropping from 53 to 52 seats in the House of Representatives. Last year, the Brennan Center for Justice predicted that the state was on track to lose four more congressional districts when reapportioned in 2030, leaving California with just 48 House seats.
Michael Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program, said Friday that new Census Bureau estimates indicated there could be slightly less dramatic redistribution nationwide in 2030. But assuming that The demographic trend of the past two years holds true for the rest of the decade, he said, with California still on track to lose three or four seats — and perhaps more, depending on how harshly the President Trump’s administration has repressed immigration.
“California’s population lives primarily from immigration,” Li said. “There are about 360,000 people coming from outside the United States… With the arrival of a new administration, which talks about deport millions of people and perhaps cut off legal immigration routes into the country, a lot could change.”
The Trump administration, Li said, could also manipulate the census. For example, adding a question on citizenship could reduce participation.
The Census Bureau estimates were released a day before the California Department of Finance released data Friday showing the state’s population increased by about 49,000 residents in the fiscal year ending 1 July, to reach 39,172,742 inhabitants. The department’s estimate is significantly lower than the Census Bureau’s estimate of 232,570, largely because the bureau attributes a much higher level of international migration to California.
As a demographer who has examined population data for decades, Johnson said this year’s difference between the Census Bureau’s estimates and those from the California Department of Finance was remarkable.
“The big difference is migration, and migration is hard to measure,” Johnson said. “We have legal flows and administrative records, but sometimes people will, for example, change their status from a sort of temporary status to a permanent status. Technically this could be considered immigration, but it is not a new resident. And then, of course, illegal or undocumented immigration is also difficult to measure.”
The California Department of Finance attributed the state’s growth to a combination of factors: legal immigration continues to rebound after the pandemic; greater internal migration and slowed internal emigration; natural increase as the number of deaths declines from its pandemic peak.
Johnson said he didn’t expect conservatives to stop portraying California as a symbol of national decline.
“There are still a lot of people leaving California to move to other states — there’s no doubt about that — so there’s probably some political hay to be made there,” Johnson said. “The reason is that the cost of living and housing prices are very high in California, which means people want to live here because it’s a question of demand and supply.”
At the height of California’s rapid population growth, Johnson said, the state used to attract people from the rest of the country, as well as from abroad. But this has not been the case for around twenty years.
Still, Johnson said, liberals could push back against simplistic conservative narratives and offer a reality check.
“Why is California so expensive?” » he said. “Part of the reason is probably that it’s harder to build housing here. But one of the reasons it’s harder to build housing here is that land is expensive, and land is expensive because a lot of people want to own land or a house in California.