Donald Trump has a slight advantage of 3 points over Kamala Harris in Arizona, boosted by economic and border issues. Harris has advantages with voters who prioritize abortion and the state of democracy, keeping this race close.
Voters think Trump’s politics would put the interests of American citizens ahead of those of recent immigrants, many of whom believe Harris’s policies wouldn’t do it. And Trump’s idea of deport all immigrants in the United States is illegally supported by more than half of Arizona voters.
The situation is somewhat different in the race for US Senate: Democratic Rep. Rubén Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 9 points. Gallego is helped by some Republicans and independents who are splitting their ticket by voting for Trump for president and against Lake for the Senate, which most Arizona voters consider extreme.
The economy and rising prices: the Trump advantage
Inflation continues to be on the minds of Arizona voters. Most say the prices of the products they buy have increased in recent months, and those who think this support Trump over Harris.
More voters believe they will personally be better off financially if Trump wins than if Harris wins.
Border and immigration: the Trump advantage
Of all the issues measured in the poll, Trump enjoys the widest lead over Harris among Arizona voters who view the border as a major factor in their vote. Throughout this campaign, this is an issue that has concerned Republicans more than Democrats.
Voters have contrasting views on the impact of the candidate’s policies on the number of migrants attempting to cross the border. Most voters think border crossings will decrease under Trump, while a slight majority think they will increase because of Harris’ policies.
Beyond the border issue, views on how recent immigration has affected life in Arizona shape voters’ presidential preferences. Those who think recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life worse in Arizona support Trump, while those who think recent immigrants have improved life in the state or haven’t had much of a impact support Harris.
And most voters view Trump’s policies as putting the interests of current U.S. citizens ahead of those of recent immigrants, while many view Harris’s policies as putting the interests of recent immigrants ahead of those of U.S. citizens.
Trump’s idea of launching a national program to track down and deport all immigrants who are in the United States illegally is overwhelmingly supported by his voters, and it also finds favor with more than half of Arizona voters in their whole. We’re seeing similar support on this topic nationally.
Abortion: Harris advantage
The abortion issue helped keep Democrats competitive in 2022, and it helps Harris in 2024, but it’s not enough right now to put her ahead of Trump. Here’s why.
Most voters support that abortion is legal in Arizona, and there is a slim majority of support for Proposition 139, a ballot measure that would establish the right to abortion in the state constitution, but this support for legal abortion does not only translate into support for Harris. There is a significant percentage of voters – 1 in 5 – who say they will vote for Proposition 139 but will vote for Trump.
And as we saw in Arizona voters are more likely to think Trump will leave the issue of abortion to the states, according to our national pollSo the Harris campaign’s argument that Trump will try to enact a national abortion ban has not resonated with most Arizona voters outside the Democratic Party.
Additionally, while Harris is well ahead of Trump among voters who say abortion is a major factor in their vote, many more voters prioritize the economy and inflation, and Trump leads Harris on these questions.
Democracy: the Harris advantage
The state of democracy is a top issue for voters – only the economy and inflation are cited by more voters as a major factor in their vote. And as we’ve seen nationally, Harris tops the list of those who say democracy is a major factor in their vote. It’s not as wide as his lead on abortion, but it’s a factor that keeps this fight close.
Latino voters
Latino voters in Arizona support Harris over Trump, but not by as wide a margin as they supported Joe Biden over Trump in 2020. Harris has not convinced most Latino voters that her policies would improve their financial situation personal (neither does Trump.), but personal finances are linked to the choice of presidential vote. Latino voters who feel good about their own financial situation support Harris, but those who feel their personal financial situation is poor are more divided in their vote.
And Trump’s idea for a program that would illegally deport all immigrants in the United States finds support among some Latino voters, although most oppose the idea.
Arizona’s election system
Skepticism about the outcome of the Election 2020 remains prevalent among Arizona Republicans and those who support Trump. The overwhelming majority of them do not consider Joe Biden the legitimate winner of Arizona in 2020, and today, only 9% of Trump voters are confident that the election in their state will be conducted fairly and precise. This stands in stark contrast to Harris voters.
As we look toward November, nearly half of Trump supporters would like the Arizona election to be contested and investigated if Harris wins, while most Harris voters say the election results election should be accepted, regardless of who wins.
The Senate race
In the Arizona Senate race, Lake is behind Gallego by 9 points, largely due to a number of Republicans and independents splitting their ticket by voting for Trump in the presidential race and Gallego for the Senate.
Lake is considered extreme by most Arizona voters — including Trump supporters who are considering voting for Gallego in the Senate race — while Gallego is considered reasonable by most Arizona voters .
Lake holds a sizable lead among those who think recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life worse in Arizona, a view shared by nearly half of Arizona voters.
But even among those who vote for her, she seems to command less personal appeal than Trump at the top of the list. While most Trump voters support him because they like him, most Lake voters support her either because she is the Republican nominee or to oppose her Democratic opponent.
Gallego, by contrast, has a clear lead among moderates and independents (independents are more split between Harris and Trump), and he has the support of more than a quarter of Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted among a statewide representative sample of 1,439 registered voters in Arizona surveyed between October 11 and 16, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender , age, race, education, and geographic region, based on U.S. Census data. and voter records, as well as previous votes. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.3 points.
Main lines
