Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic congressional leaders are vehemently opposing an anti-retail theft measure that will be put on the November ballot. But they are being ignored by California voters who overwhelmingly support the proposal.
Maybe voters aren’t aware of the governor and lawmakers’ strong opposition. Or maybe they know and don’t care. They’re following their own instincts and think California — once again — is too soft on the bad guys.
The pendulum seems to be swinging back from the left to the center on crime and incarceration. Thirty years ago, California was on the right with the war on drugs and harsh sentences for repeat offenders. Then we gradually swung left with drastic reductions in sentences. Opinions continue to evolve.
The support numbers for Proposition 36, sponsored by the California District Attorneys Association, are staggering. It would increase penalties for theft and hard drug offenses and impose mandatory treatment for repeat drug offenders.
The initiative is ahead by a stunning 45 percentage points, according to a new poll of likely voters by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California: 71 percent to 26 percent, with just 3 percent undecided.
This is unprecedented for a controversial referendum measure.
In any case, it is controversial among politicians. But apparently not among voters.
“I was surprised by the level of support,” said Mark Baldassare, a pollster at the Public Policy Institute of California.
But he adds this caveat: “Proposals are not like candidate races. They can collapse. And the campaign for and against 36 hasn’t really started yet. It’s easier for people to say ‘no’ to a proposal than ‘yes.’ Especially if someone comes along and points out a fatal flaw.”
Sure. But don’t bet on it. Opponents have a very steep hill to climb to conquer Proposition 36.
He leads in every demographic group, including Democrats, by a landslide margin: 63% to 33%. Self-described liberals support him 56% to 41%.
Baldassare notes that of the state’s 10 ballot measures, voters view Proposition 36 as by far the most important, according to his poll.
Another independent poll last month by the Institute for Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, also showed the measure holding a huge lead: 56 percent to 23 percent, with 21 percent undecided.
IGS pollster Mark DiCamillo cited the “high visibility” of retail thefts — caught on camera or witnessed personally by voters — as a reason for the overwhelming support for Proposition 36.
“What they’re seeing is pretty outrageous to voters,” DiCamillo told Times reporter Mackenzie Mays. “And they’re connecting that to the approval of Proposition 47.”
A decade ago, the bill shifted California leftward on crime. Pressure from federal courts to reduce prison overcrowding had intensified. The measure passed in a lopsided manner, reducing some serious crimes to misdemeanors with little punishment, including shoplifting when the stolen goods were worth less than $950.
Arrests for minor offenses are harder to make because a police officer must witness a crime or have an arrest warrant issued by a judge. Regardless, judges began releasing petty thieves. So police officers stopped responding to shoplifting complaints. Store owners stopped reporting the crimes. And burglaries increased.
PPIC researchers recently reported on a year-long study of the impact of Proposition 47.
“Under Proposition 47, the prison and jail population fell, as did arrests for drug and property offenses, after some offenses were reclassified from felonies to misdemeanors,” the report said.
But the pandemic also contributed to fewer arrests. As people stayed home to prevent the spread of COVID, there were “fewer encounters with police, which led to fewer arrests,” the researchers said.
In any case, public pressure mounted on Sacramento Democrats to do something—and they didn’t do anything for several years. They probably thought the growing resistance to Bill 47 would simply fade away. It didn’t.
Newsom has been one of the strongest advocates of Proposition 47 and a staunch defender of it.
“We don’t need to go back to the failed policies of the last century,” he insisted. “Mass incarceration has proven to be ineffective and is not the solution.”
Newsom’s first response was to try to push for Proposition 36 to be pulled from the ballot. It failed clumsily, leaving legislative leaders unsettled by the governor.
Proposition 36 would undo parts of Proposition 47. The governor supported a package of legislation aimed at reducing retail theft without significantly changing Proposition 47. But he concocted a crazy “poison pill” that would have automatically killed Democrats’ own anti-crime legislation if Proposition 36 had been approved by voters.
The goal was to force the proponents of Proposition 36 to throw in the towel and accept the legislature’s offer. But Democrats rebelled against the governor’s bizarre plan and refused to include the deadly pill in their plan.
The Legislature ultimately passed 13 bills that Newsom and Democratic lawmakers hope will address voters’ demands for California to do more to combat shoplifting and theft.
“The bills they passed do some good things, but overall they’re half measures,” said Gregory Totten, executive director of the California District Attorneys Association. “Our law [36] claims that the consequences of theft should be aggravated.
The initiative also includes tougher penalties for selling fentanyl, a deadly drug, and treats it the same as other hard drugs, such as heroin and cocaine. Some people found in possession of hard drugs could be sentenced to simple treatment.
Outside Sacramento, some prominent Democrats have heard from voters, read the polls and supported Proposition 36. They include Mayors London Breed of San Francisco, Todd Gloria of San Diego and Matt Mahan of San Jose.
But Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg, a former state Senate leader who spent his career trying to create treatment for homeless people with drug addictions and the mentally ill, opposes Proposition 36.
Project 36 offers a “false promise” of treatment, he said. It will not deliver because the focus will be on policing, not treating drug addicts, Steinberg predicted.
But so far, Newsom and Sacramento Democrats have failed to sway anyone away from Proposition 36. Voters are moving in the opposite direction.
