National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists have issued weather warnings across the country as millions of voters venture out on Election Day.
As of Tuesday morning, winter storm warnings and watches extended from Montana to New Mexico. Critical fire conditions, accompanied by high winds, hit California’s Bay Area, and a torrent of rain causing flooding continued across the central United States. In the South, tropical storm warnings were issued for waters off Florida as Tropical Storm Rafael approaches.
Rain and snow are likely to have the biggest impact on voter turnout, although the worst storms are expected to avoid the seven swing states that could determine the winner of one of the closest presidential elections in US history. UNITED STATES.
The worst winter conditions – including winter storm warnings and high wind warnings – are expected in Montana and Wyoming, traditionally red states that former President Donald Trump is unlikely to lose, even though the rate of Voter turnout decreases due to bad weather. Likewise, despite several alert warnings and power outages in California to protect against wildfires, windy conditions in California are unlikely to disrupt Vice President Kamala Harris’ expected success in the Golden State.
National Weather Service
Previous forecasts called for possible rain and snow in the key states of Michigan and Wisconsin, but as of Tuesday morning, no weather warnings had been issued. Other swing states have also been sheltered from the weather, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. The only weather alerts in place for Nevada and Arizona included a wind advisory and a frost watch.
Republican strategist Mark Weaver previously said News week that voters feel particularly passionate about the presidential candidates this year, which means that bad weather, short of a blizzard, probably won’t keep them from going to the polls, especially since nearly 80 million of people have already voted in advance or by mail.
However, some of the more extreme weather could impact voter turnout in important Senate and House elections, particularly in Montana.
Winter storm in Montana could deter voters
A tight Senate race is taking place in Montana between incumbent Jon Tester, a Democrat, and Republican Tim Sheehy. Tester, who has narrowly held on to his seat since 2006, is the only Democrat to serve in a statewide congressional office in Montana. With winter storm warnings extending across the state, voters may be convinced to stay home due to the weather, especially those who live in mountainous areas.
“Travel may be very difficult or impossible, and tire chains may be required for some vehicles. Those in the outback should ensure they are prepared for hazardous conditions,” it says. winter storm warning. “Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Strong winds could damage trees and power lines.”
Several studies have shown that while bad weather impacts voter turnout, it tends to benefit Republicans, particularly in presidential elections.
“In addition to its direct effect on voter turnout, we showed that bad weather can affect electoral results by significantly decreasing the share of Democratic votes in the presidential election, to the benefit of Republicans,” a study indicates.
As of Tuesday morning, the most recent update from poll aggregator 538 showed Sheehy with a nearly 7-point lead over Tester.
California wildfire conditions
Although Harris is expected to win California, the House race for California’s 45th Congressional District is not as certain.
Several NWS alerts are in place for the area, including a Red Flag Warning. Critical fire conditions have prompted Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) to require public safety power shutoffs farther north in the Bay Area, although voluntary shutoffs are unlikely to have an impact on power in the contested 45th District, where Republican Rep. Michelle Steel faces Democrat Derek Tran. . Steel retained his seat by nearly 5 points in the 2022 midterm elections, but recent polls this year show Tran in the lead.
Farther north, PG&E spokesman Jeff Smith said News week In the event of a power outage at two Bay Area polling locations, the centers were equipped with backup generators to ensure voters were not interrupted. None of the state’s tabulation centers are affected by power outages, although PG&E has also provided backup generators there as a precaution.
