Conservatives must resist false choice of courting reformists or Liberal Democrats who have deserted the party, think tank says | Conservatives

Conservatives must resist the false choice of courting voters who opted for Reform or the Liberal Democrats in the election, according to a leading Tory-focused think tank, as the party faces a crucial week to decide its future after its defeat.

Former Conservative supporters who voted for Reform or the Liberal Democrats on July 4 had common characteristics, including scepticism of Keir Starmer and concerns about immigration, Onward said.

Drawing on a survey of more than 52,000 people in May and June, the report by the think tank Breaking Blue says Conservative leaders should instead focus on what it calls “super demographics” – the traits shared by many of those who have left the party.

The move comes as the executive committee of the 1922 Committee, which represents Conservative MPs, is due to meet again on Wednesday evening to try to set a timetable for selecting a replacement for Rishi Sunak, who has announced he will resign.

A meeting last week failed to reach agreement on the issue, with potential candidates divided over how quickly to act. One option would be to use the party’s annual conference at the end of September to unveil a successor. Others want to take more time, but that could require an interim leader given the uncertainty over how much longer Sunak wants to serve in the role.

Much of the early skirmishing between supporters of the different candidates focused on whether the party should move right to re-attract voters who had gone to the Reformers, or whether doing so might further alienate centrist conservatives who had gone to the Liberal Democrats.

However, the Onward study suggests that defectors from both parties disliked Keir Starmer – for Reform supporters the figure was 76%, and for those who had switched to the Lib Dems 58% – and also supported immigration restrictions, with 53% of Conservative-turned-Lib Dem voters backing the measure.

A more fertile approach, the report says, would be to focus on demographics that seem most relevant to those most likely to be won back: typically voters who are older, working class, supported Brexit, own their own homes, do not live in cities and do not have a degree.

But he also warned that the party must appreciate the scale of the challenge, with more than a fifth of former Conservatives under 18 switching to Labour, and a quarter of those aged 45 to 74 turning to Reform.

It was a “once-in-a-century defeat,” said Sebastian Payne, director of Onward, with the party experiencing a “four-way pincer movement” of support losses based on age, income, geography and views on Brexit.

“The road back to power will be difficult,” he said. “The trap of the next leadership contest is to pretend that the Conservatives must focus on either the defectors from the Liberal Democrats or the British Reformers. The truth is that the party must focus on both – and fortunately, these groups are more similar than many people think.”