HARRISBURG, Pa. — Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters in the Rust Belt, the Rocky Mountains and the American Southwest as the two major political parties portray their opponents’ candidates as extremists in a fight for control of the US Senate.
In three races alone – Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana – more than $1 billion is expected to be spent by November 5.
The Ohio race could break the spending record for Senate races. The Montana race will go down as the costliest Senate race ever by vote. And, late in the game, Democrats are sending millions more dollars to Texas, a GOP stronghold where the party has new hopes of ousting two-term conservative Sen. Ted Cruz, an upset that could help them to protect their majority.
Republicans need to pick up two seats to get a sure-fire majority, and one of them — West Virginia — is practically in the bag for the GOP.
Other breeds are more volatile and less predictable.
For Democrats, the brutal math of this year’s election cycle requires them to defend eight seats in tough states. Losses for established incumbents could amount to an extinction-level event for Democrats who reliably represent Republican states.
The election will also test the strength of the two parties in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, key presidential battleground states known as the Blue Wall for their relatively reliable Democratic voting history. Republican victories there would significantly change the rules of the game in the Senate.
In total, data from political ad tracking firm AdImpact projects that more than $2.5 billion will be spent on advertising in Senate races during this two-year campaign cycle, slightly more than the total of 2022.
That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania, and $280 million in Montana, a population of 1.1 million, less than a tenth of the population from Ohio or Pennsylvania. The costliest Senate race ever was Democrat John Ossoff’s victory in a Georgia runoff that went to a 2021 runoff and decided control of the Senate, according to organization data monitoring the financing of Open Secrets campaigns.
In general, campaign strategists say Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is ahead of his party’s Senate candidates in states where the Senate battle is being fought, while Democratic candidates in those states are ahead of their candidate in presidential candidate, Kamala Harris.
That means there is a slice of voters who might vote for Trump but not support Republicans in Senate races — or who might split their tickets with Democratic Senate candidates.
Such splits have been rare. In Maine in 2020, voters supported Democrat Joe Biden for president and re-elected Republican Sen. Susan Collins, for example.
Republican strategists said they expected the party’s top super PACs to spend through Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive elections, but also Nevada and Arizona, where Republicans are encouraged by strong early voting numbers.
Republicans are more confident about flipping the seat in deep-red Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Tester for his third term. They’re also optimistic about reliably red Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno is challenging Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for his third term.
Torunn Sinclair, a spokeswoman for two Republican-aligned super PACs, said one of them — American Crossroads — was pulling $2.8 million out of Montana, while both were pumping several million more into Pennsylvania.
There, Republican David McCormick is trying to unseat three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in a presidential battleground that both sides say is close.
McCormick, former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, hammered home the message in two debates that Casey is a “sure thing” to support the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.
In recent days, Casey began running an ad in conservative areas touting his “greed” legislation to prosecute price gouging. The ad states that “Casey opposed Biden on protecting fracking” and “siding with Trump” on trade and tariffs.
Republicans say Casey’s ad showing Trump is similar to a television ad run by Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and speaks to the need for both Democrats to protect against Harris’ vulnerability in their states.
“They hope to eliminate enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.
Yet Casey ran a similar ad during the 2018 midterm elections when he won easily — even though that ad did not mention Trump — while Casey’s campaign notes that he has long since separated from Democrats by opposing free trade deals and supporting fossil fuel projects.
Democrats, conversely, say they are forcing competitive contests late in the campaign in two red states, Texas and Nebraska. Ousting incumbent Republicans from one or both seats could help Democrats achieve at least a 50-50 split in the Senate if Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.
In Texas, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former professional football player, has proven adept at collecting small donations to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred outperformed every Senate candidate nationally except Tester and Brown.
The ad spending advantage for Allred was 3-2, according to AdImpact, with the Democratic-majority PAC in the Senate touting a new seven-figure digital ad buy and a separate $5 million TV ad buy attacking Cruz on a key issue for Democrats. , the right to abortion.
On top of that, Democrats are hoping that Harris’ rally in Houston on Friday with Allred and Beyoncé can help Allred by increasing Black voter turnout.
In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn — a tattooed former union leader who supports abortion rights — appears to have consolidated Democratic and independent voters while making some inroads with Republicans, Democratic strategists say.
Although Osborn is running as an independent and has not said which party he would unite with, he has the support of a liberal super PAC that has helped him gain a significant spending advantage over the senator. Republican Deb Fischer.
In both states, Republicans acknowledge they have had to spend money in unexpected ways to shore up their incumbents’ prospects, but they also say they expect to win comfortably.
In Ohio, Brown attempted to personalize his appeal by appearing in most of his own advertisements and speaking directly to the camera.
“My name is Sherrod Brown and I have a question,” Brown says, looking into the camera and resting his elbow on what might be a woodworking shop table. “Have you ever heard Bernie Moreno talk about what he’s going to do for Ohio?
Brown also makes a personal appeal to potential voters, saying he has spent his career fighting for workers and veterans and working with law enforcement and “presidents of both parties to do what there’s something best for our state.”
Elsewhere, strategists expect first-term Florida Sen. Rick Scott to fend off a challenge from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Maryland Democrat Angela Alsobrooks to beat former Gov. Larry Hogan to fill a seat vacated by the Democratic senator. Ben Cardin.
Associated Press reporter Julie Carr Smyth in Columbus, Ohio, contributed to this report.
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