Even with the recent rains, the Chicago area is still experiencing drought conditions, and if things continue on this path, it’s possible that it could impact the changing color of leaves in the area.
According to the National Weather Service, Chicago reported only 1.32 inches of rain in the month of September, nearly two inches less than it normally receives. The city also recorded the second warmest September on record, with an average temperature of 70.6 degrees.
Dry conditions were present across most of the region, with most suburbs far from Lake Michigan seeing their precipitation totals still below their historical averages, according to NWS data.
As a result, according to the US Drought Monitor, almost the entire Chicago region was in a “moderate drought” situation at the end of September, and the situation does not appear to be improving based on projections for the rest of the month of October.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, forecasters are “leaning toward” the Chicago area seeing below-average precipitation levels for the month of October, which could further worsen drought conditions in the region.
Finally, temperature forecasts lean towards above-average temperatures for the month of October, according to the CPC.
Although farmers will surely appreciate the dry conditions, since they won’t have to dry their crops before marketing them, the conditions could have a significant impact on how quickly and what color leaves change in the region this fall.
According to Minnesota professor Jessica Savage, leaves “tend to change color earlier and fall more quickly” during drier years, leading to “less spectacular fall foliage viewing times and shorter”.
Savage also warned that several consecutive years of fall drought can cause stress to trees, leading to long-term consequences on the tree’s ability to produce vibrant, colorful leaves.
According to National Weather Service data, Chicago has experienced two straight months of drier than normal conditions, although in June the city saw 5.89 inches of rain, well above the average of 3.59 inches. Chicago also saw slightly above average precipitation in April and May, according to the National Weather Service.
According to American Forests, the Chicago area is already seeing patchy changes in its leaves since September 30, while parts of Wisconsin are already seeing a partial change.
By mid-October, the Chicago area is expected to be near its peak fall colors, while parts of Wisconsin will begin to exceed their peak colors.
Oct. 21 is the expected date when most of the Chicago area will be at peak color, although some southern suburbs may have to wait until the following week, according to the website.
