Led by Democrats, young black voters becoming more engaged and more likely to vote, and women who strongly believed it would further their interests, Vice President Kamala Harris reset the 2024 presidential race.
She has a one-point lead nationally — something President Biden never had (he was down 5 points when he left the race) — and Harris and former president Donald Trump are linked across the states of the collective battlefield.
Looking ahead, voters are also defining why the next few weeks could be crucial.
On the one hand, Harris has additional assets with the broader electorate that Mr. Biden did not have: she leads Trump to be seen as having the cognitive health serve, a measure which was of course at the heart of the campaign before Mr. Biden has withdrawn.
And politically in general, Harris is seen as a little different from Mr. Biden, which opens up some possibility of defining her positions for the electorate now, one way or another.
But to Trump’s advantage, some key things haven’t changed: He maintains his commanding lead among voters who say they’ll be better off financially with him and who say his policies would be less effective. migrants at the border.
The percentage of Democrats who say they will “definitely” vote has reached its highest level this year, narrowing the partisan turnout gap we’ve seen throughout the campaign.
And today, significantly more black voters say they will vote than they did in July, when Mr. Biden was the nominee.
More generally, all this shows that the election could well depend on participation, and more particularly on low-turnout voters, that is, those who do not always show up to vote.
For example, among those who typically describe themselves as voting “sometimes” or “rarely” — but who say they will definitely vote now — Harris currently leads.
Women’s Vote
Harris leads with women voters — an advantage Democrats have enjoyed and needed in recent history — for at least one major reason: Women voters overwhelmingly believe Harris would advocate for women if elected. Far fewer women say the same about Trump.
Overall, voters tend to think Trump would serve the interests of men better than those of women.
Along similar lines, the gender gap has widened somewhat since the campaign began. Harris leads Trump among women by a larger margin than Mr. Biden, while enjoying roughly the same support as Mr. Biden among men.
Enthusiasm and cores of democratic groups
Most Democratic voters, and nearly half of all voters, believe that Harris’s nomination makes them more likely to vote. (There’s also a countervailing effect: About a third of Trump voters are also more likely to vote now that Harris is the nominee.)
It’s not just that Democrats are more enthusiastic, but also that they feel they’ve found a candidate who can compete more with Trump because of a number of the candidate’s qualities.
Harris has the advantage over Trump because she is perceived to have the mental and cognitive health to serve, which was a critical deficit for Mr. Biden.
Among voters overall, she leads Trump in energy and focus (two qualities on which Mr. Biden lags far behind). She is on par with Trump in perceived competence, and closer than Mr. Biden in firmness and effectiveness.
Black Voters
Harris now enjoys a level of support among black voters closer to that of Mr. Biden in 2020 and higher than Mr. Biden has polled this year.
Black voters believe Harris will take care of everyone, including black people.
Republicans and Trump voters believe Harris will serve the interests of black people more than white people; Harris voters believe she will serve the interests of all people, regardless of gender or race.
Trump voters also believe he will serve the interests of all, even though the electorate as a whole tends to think he will serve the interests of men and whites more than others.
More broadly, when voters assess the state of the country, most of them believe the country is ready to elect a black woman president, and that includes people who vote for Harris and many who don’t. That includes about three-quarters of independents and nearly half of Republicans.
To put this in historical context, the 21st century has seen a shift in these types of opinions. In 2000, just over a third of Americans thought the country was ready to elect a black president. That changed in 2008, when Barack Obama was running, and most Americans said the country was ready to do so.
Politics and issues: what has changed and what has remained the same?
Harris’s political views are seen as mostly — but not entirely — the same as Mr. Biden’s, raising the question of how the campaigns might spend the coming weeks seeking to define those differences in the public’s mind.
Voters do indeed see her as a somewhat or very liberal woman (the more conservative you are, the more you tend to see her as very liberal). But voters also see Trump as a very or somewhat conservative woman – and so this choice is more polarized than the electorate as a whole.
On policies that will improve public finances: Harris starts in the same position as Mr. Biden in July, lagging behind Trump.
Half of them believe Harris’ policies would increase the number of migrants trying to cross the border, as Mr. Biden’s did, but that Trump’s would decrease that number.
On abortion protection: A majority believe Harris will try to pass a national law making abortion legal.
Harris has said Trump would ban abortion nationwide if he were to return to office, but she may still have a hard time convincing voters. Trump has said he would leave the issue to the states, and voters are more likely to think he will do just that.
Pending the choice of the vice president
Overall, most Democrats are not explicitly calling for Harris to choose a man or a woman as her running mate, and some strategically believe the choice should be made in a key state.
The impact of third parties
Including third-party candidates (although not all are on the ballot in every state), Harris’ national lead is similar, at two points.
State-level estimates
In addition to our national survey, we have updated State-level estimates available for the seven key states that are derived from The CBS News Statistical Model – which incorporates data from this survey as well as many other data. All estimates are within the margins of error, further reinforcing the idea of a tied race.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 3,102 registered voters surveyed between July 30 and August 2, 2024. The survey included an oversample of Black respondents. The final sample as reported was weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey and the U.S. Census’ Current Population Survey, as well as the 2020 presidential vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters nationally. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.1 percentage points. Battlegrounds are AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.
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Antoine Salvanto
