Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in five of seven key states, which will prove vital in determining who wins the election, according to a poll.
An AtlasIntel survey of likely voters in battleground states found Trump leading in Michigan (50.6% to 47.2) and Pennsylvania (51% to 48.1).
AtlasIntel said the former president also has a “narrow” advantage in the states of Arizona (49.8% to 48.6), Georgia (49.6% to 49) and Wisconsin ( 49.7% versus 48.2). Harris leads in North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7).
AtlasIntel was named the most accurate polling group in the 2020 presidential election by 538. Trump would win the 2024 race with 290 Electoral College votes if the Republican wins the five battleground states he currently leads in their polls, with Harris on 248.
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The AtlastIntel polls were conducted between September 20 and 25 with a margin or error of between 2 and 3 percentage points.
News week contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.
The AtlasIntel poll shows Trump would win two of the so-called “blue wall” battleground states that are crucial for Harris.
Harris only needs to win the three blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to give her the required 270 Electoral College votes to win the election, barring shocking results elsewhere.
If Trump wins only Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia in November, the former president will have enough votes to be declared the clear winner.
Trump could also win by defeating Harris in the four Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, and by toppling just one of Wisconsin or Michigan.
The AtlasIntel survey shows Harris leading in North Carolina, where the poll was conducted following controversy surrounding Trump-backed North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.
Robinson was recently accused of describing himself as a “black Nazi” on a pornographic website’s forum more than a decade ago, among other controversies.
Questions were raised about whether Trump’s campaign in the crucial state of North Carolina would be affected by his association with Robinson.
David B. McLennan, a political science professor and pollster at Meredith University, previously said News week that Trump might be “somewhat inoculated” from Robinson’s controversies because of the state’s history of ticket splitting.
McLennan added that in a close race, even “Trump losing a few percentage points could matter” in North Carolina.
AtlasIntel swing state surveys surveyed 946 likely voters in Arizona, 1,200 likely voters in Georgia, 918 likely voters in Michigan, 1,173 likely voters in North Carolina, 1,775 likely voters in Pennsylvania, and 1,077 likely voters in Wisconsin .
Each state’s results have a margin or error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, except Pennsylvania (2 percentage points).
