Recent polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona for the 2024 presidential election, with Trump holding a slight advantage in most polls.
The latest data suggests that Arizona remains a key battleground state, with immigration becoming a central issue for voters. With 11 votes in the Electoral College, the Grand Canyon State is crucial for both candidates in their quest to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
The most recent poll, conducted by AtlasIntel September 20-25, gives Trump a one-point lead over Harris, 50 percentage points to 49 percentage points. The survey covered a sample of 946 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 points.
News week contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email Monday for comment.
A poll carried out during the same period by Morning Consult for Bloomberg News shows contrasting results. Among the 926 likely voters, Harris leads with 50% support, compared to 47% for Trump, a 3-point advantage for the vice president. Expanding the sample to 977 registered voters, Harris maintains a lead, with 49 percent to Trump’s 46 percent.
Fox News sponsored a poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research from September 20-24. Among 764 likely voters, Trump led Harris by 3 points, 51% to 48%. In a larger sample of 1,021 registered voters, Trump’s lead narrowed slightly, from 50% to 48%, to 2 points.
A recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll, conducted September 21-24, shows Trump with his largest lead yet in Arizona. Of 500 voters surveyed statewide, Trump leads 48 to 42 percent, a 6-point advantage. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
The FiveThirtyEight polling average, which combines several surveys and takes into account factors such as recency, sample size, methodology and house effects, gives Trump a slim 1.1 point lead in Arizona in the September 30. His model shows Trump with 47.9 percent to 46.8 percent. for Harris.
According to the USA Today/Suffolk University poll, 21 percent of respondents cited immigration as their top voting issue. The Fox News poll released September 26 found that 56% of respondents trust Trump to do a better job on border security, compared to 41% who believe Harris is stronger on the issue.
The importance of immigration to Arizona was underscored by Harris’ campaign visit to the U.S.-Mexico border on September 27, the same day the USA Today/Suffolk University poll was released. Harris’ main immigration policy calls for reviving the bipartisan border bill that was blocked by Senate Republicans this year. The Hispanic vote could play a crucial role in determining the outcome in Arizona, since the poll shows Harris leading the voting bloc with 47 percent support, while Trump lags behind with 35 percent. There are about 1.3 million Hispanic registered voters in Arizona, making up about a quarter of the state’s total.
The presidential race in Arizona stands in stark contrast to the Senate race in that state. According to the Fox News poll published on September 26, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego holds a comfortable lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake. Gallego is polling at 55 percent among likely voters and 56 percent among registered voters, while Lake is at 42 percent in both cases.
The Fox News poll also shows that a significant number of voters are considering splitting their ticket. Independents are 16 points more likely to support Gallego, but not Harris, and Republicans are 10 points more likely to follow suit. Only 3 percent of those surveyed said they were voting for both Lake and Harris.
