Former White House deputy chief of staff Karl Rove said that if Donald Trump had been convicted before the November election, it could have been the “October surprise” and boosted his chances in the race.
Appearing on Fox News Friday, Rove was asked about Judge Juan Merchan’s decision to delay sentencing Trump until after the election in connection with his New York conviction for falsifying business records relating to a hush-money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
Rove responded: “First of all, it’s a reasonable decision. I think even the judge understood that it would be extremely disruptive to the country and a bad blow to justice if he tried to interfere in the middle of the final stages of a presidential campaign.”
Rove continued: “And I also agree with the idea… that if [Merchan] “If we had done that, it would have, ironically, served Donald Trump’s interests.”
Rove also said that Trump’s popularity in the polls has increased “as people reacted negatively to his treatment in court. And if the judge had done that, it could easily have been the October Surprise. That is, [Merchan] would have potentially attacked Donald Trump in his verdict and the reaction of the American people could have been totally negative and would have helped advance Donald Trump’s cause in the election.
Rove also called the decision a “wise decision” and “good for the country.”
Photograph by Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign via email for comment on Rove’s remarks.
Meanwhile, after the decision was announced, Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social to praise the decision, saying in part, “The Manhattan DA witch hunt has been postponed because everyone realizes there was NO CASE, I DID NOTHING WRONG!”
Trump also said he appreciated Merchan’s language in the ruling, which states that sentencing “if necessary” will be postponed until 10 a.m. on Nov. 26. Trump was previously scheduled to be sentenced on Sept. 18.
Political analyst and Dillard University professor Robert Collins said: Newsweek Friday, “I disagree with Karl Rove because so far, trials and convictions have not changed the polls. Trump supporters have already indicated in the polls that even if Trump went to prison, they would still vote for him. So a prison sentence would not have changed the fundamental behavior of Trump voters.”
As Trump fought his criminal trial in New York this year, polls showed a relatively even presidential race before and after his May 30 conviction by a Manhattan jury, according to polling aggregation by polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
A Morning Consult and Politico poll commissioned between May 28 and 29 showed Trump and President Joe Biden tied exactly with 45% of the vote among registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 points. Economist and a YouGov poll commissioned between May 25 and 28 showed Trump with a 1-point lead over Biden among registered voters, with a margin of error of 2.9%.
After his conviction, a Economist A YouGov poll of registered voters, commissioned between June 2 and 4, showed Trump and Biden tied, with 42% of the vote and a margin of error of 3 percentage points. A Reuters and Ipsos poll, commissioned between May 30 and 31, showed Biden with a 2-point lead over Trump among registered voters, with 41% of the vote to Trump’s 39% and a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.
A YouGov and CBS News poll conducted between June 5 and 7 showed Trump with a 1% lead with 50% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 49%, among likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.8%.
