Florida State returns from Ireland hoping to rebound from a shocking 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic.
On Monday night, the Seminoles host Boston College, which is entering a new era under coach Bill O’Brien.
While the line remained flat at -10.5 in the opener against Georgia Tech, we saw a massive shift in the odds this week, with Florida State dropping to -16.5 from an early open of -23.5.
In this preview, I will share my plan for how bettors can still recover some value, even at the current price.
Florida State vs. Florida State odds Boston College
| Team | Propagated | Money line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | +16.5 (-110) | +575 | o51.5 (-108) |
| State of Florida | -16.5 (-110) | -850 | u51.5 (-112) |
Boston College Outlook
When these teams met last season, Boston College nearly came away with the win as a 27.5-point underdog, losing 31-29.
The Seminoles would finish undefeated in the regular season but would fail to earn an invitation to the College Football Playoff due to an injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis.
Florida State’s 2023 roster was one of the best in school history, as it had 10 players drafted, one short of the ACC record set in 2013.
Meanwhile, Boston College has the 12th-most starters in college football, according to 247 Sports, with seven each on offense and defense and two on special teams.
So the cupboards aren’t entirely bare for O’Brien as he returns to college football after most recently serving as the Patriots’ offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
O’Brien is widely regarded as an offensive guru who can inject some dynamism into an Eagles team that ranked 115th in passing percentage (41.49 percent) last year under former head coach Steve Addazio.
Florida State Outlook
DJ Uiagalelei’s journey since joining the college ranks has been somewhat eventful. The California product is now playing for his second team in as many years after transferring from Clemson following the 2022 campaign.
Many believed Uiagalelei would be the next in line of great Clemson quarterbacks after Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence.
However, the redshirt senior player has struggled to live up to those high expectations.
Uiagalelei is a quarterback who is likely to divide opinion. One could argue that Seminoles coach Mike Norvell didn’t have enough confidence in Uiagalelei to open the playbook against Georgia Tech.
Despite his efficiency and his 19 of 27 passes (70.4%) without an interception, Uiagalelei resorted to checkdowns and did not push the ball up the field.
He finished the game with 193 passing yards.
Choosing between Boston College and Florida State
The Seminoles received a significant drop in my power rankings, as the numbers put them closer to a 14-point favorite against Boston College.
However, I would prefer to have odds closer to the opening figure of +23.5.
So a better option would be to take advantage of some of FanDuel’s alternate lines by betting on the Eagles at +21.5, with the game going over 44.5 points.
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This combination would increase our odds to +131.
Although I was a little harsh in my criticism of Uiagalelei’s performance, it is worth noting that he encountered double-digit winds and rainy conditions at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin.
The weather in Tallahassee should be much more manageable, with clear skies and wind speeds below five mph.
I expect both teams to have enough offense to exceed this alternate total.
Prediction: Same-game combo bet (+131, FanDuel): Boston College +21.5 points | Over 44.5 points
