Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in five key states, having erased or narrowed her lead, according to the FiveThirtyEight poll.
Before Harris entered the race, Trump held a lead over President Joe Biden in national polls and in six of seven key swing states, according to the tracker.
Since Harris took over as Democratic nominee, the party has seen a reversal in polls. Harris currently leads Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada, while the two are tied in North Carolina. Trump remains ahead of Harris in Georgia, according to the survey.
Harris’ lead over Trump is narrowest in Nevada, where she holds just a 0.1% lead with 44.6% of the vote in the tracker, though a recent Focaldata poll, conducted between August 6 and 16, showed the vice president with a 5-point lead among likely voters when third-party candidates are included in the survey. In a head-to-head matchup, she has a 7-point lead.
The lead in the poll and tracker represents a significant shift in Democrats’ prospects in the state, with polls taken in the days after Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 showing Trump ahead by one to five points, and polls taken before Biden dropped out showing him trailing by one to two points.
Some recent polls still show Trump leading in Nevada. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between August 12 and 15 had Trump leading by 2 points among likely voters.
Nevada has voted Democrat in the last four presidential elections.
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In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona, Harris holds a lead over Trump of between 0.8 and 3.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll. Polls in all of those states except Wisconsin showed Trump with the advantage in the days before and after Biden’s withdrawal.
A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll conducted in Pennsylvania between July 22 and 24 gave Trump a 4-point lead over Harris among likely voters. On August 15, a poll by the same firm showed Harris with a 2-point lead over her opponent.
Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 after Trump swung it red for the first time in nearly two decades in 2016.
In North Carolina and Georgia, where Trump has narrowly edged Harris since he entered the race, the vice president has narrowed the gap between Trump and Harris. In North Carolina, the two candidates are now neck and neck in the standings, with Trump receiving 45.6% of the vote and Harris receiving 45.5%. Trump was ahead of Harris by one point on August 12, and polls in the days following the end of Biden’s reelection campaign showed him ahead by as much as 3 points.
North Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since former President Barack Obama in 2008. But the state has elected Democratic governors in seven of the last eight gubernatorial elections.
In Georgia, Trump leads Harris by one point in the polls, after polls conducted between July 22 and 24 suggested he had a lead of up to 5 points. In a poll released by Insider Advantage on July 16, Trump held a 10-point lead among likely voters in a head-to-head race with Harris.
Biden flipped Georgia blue in 2020, after it had voted Republican in the previous six elections.
Since Harris’ campaign launched, polls in the seven key states have shown some volatility, with different polls showing each candidate ahead.
A recent poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies between August 12 and 15 showed Harris leading Trump by 2 to 4 points in two key states: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump and Harris were tied at 46 percent, while in the other four key states, Trump led Harris by 1 to 3 points.
Meanwhile, a poll released Tuesday by Navigator Research showed Harris not leading in any of the key battleground states, with the two candidates tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while she trailed in Arizona and Pennsylvania. The poll does not include Georgia.
An August 2 YouGov/CBS poll showed neither candidate with a significant lead in any key states, with the two candidates in an overall dead heat.
Success in key states is essential to winning the election. Harris is leading in many national polls, but she could win the popular vote and lose the election if key states support Trump.
