Illegal border crossings remain low amid fears elections could end lull

Nogales, Arizona — The lull in illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border continued in October, according to preliminary Customs and Border Protection figures obtained by CBS News. But officials fear this could be upended by the presidential election Tuesday.

Border Patrol agents recorded nearly 57,000 migrant apprehensions between legal ports of entry along the U.S. southern border in October, according to internal federal statistics. It’s slightly up against 54,000 in Septemberand very similar to the 58,000 and 56,000 arrests recorded in August and July respectively.

The last time monthly apprehensions were below levels seen over the past four months was four years ago, in September 2020, when Border Patrol apprehended fewer than 55,000 migrants along the U.S. border -Mexican, according to CBP historical data.

The CBP figures do not include those processed at legal border ports of entry, where the Biden administration is admitting more than 1,000 migrants daily through an appointment system powered by a U.S. government phone app. known as CBP One.

After reaching a record 250,000 in December 2023, illegal crossings at the southern border declined earlier this year, largely due to Mexico’s aggressive efforts to interdict U.S.-bound migrants. They plunged even further after President Biden invoked broad presidential powers to sharply limit asylum in early June, falling precipitously that month and in early July. Since then, migrant crossings have stagnated.

Even though illegal crossings remain low, some U.S. officials fear the presidential election could disrupt the fragile balance achieved at the southern border in recent months. Three US officials said there could be an increase in illegal crossings if former president Donald Trump wins election as migrants attempt to enter the United States before he takes office in January.

“I could definitely see an increase, either a surge before the inauguration or a sustained increase after the election,” said one of the U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press.

While Vice President Kamala Harris has pledged to maintain and strengthen Mr. Biden’s asylum restrictions, Trump has promised to completely seal the southern border, including removing the CBP One app and d other programs allowing migrants to legally enter the United States. He also pledged to reinstate his harsh immigration policies, such as the Remain-in-Mexico program, and launch the the largest deportation operation in American history.

A CBP official said the agency “remains vigilant in the face of ever-changing migration patterns – including the operations of transnational criminal organizations and other bad actors that facilitate human trafficking – and is adjusting its operations accordingly”.

During its first three years in office, the Biden administration has grappled with an unprecedented migration crisis at the southern border, fueled in part by record arrivals of migrants from crisis countries like Venezuela, where United States cannot deport. It created scenes of chaos and coincided with growing public concerns about border security.

It also marked the start of a dramatic policy shift by the Biden administration, which took office promising to “rebuild” the U.S. asylum system. But the asylum crackdown passed by Mr. Biden in June draws on the same authority the Trump administration used to limit legal and illegal immigration, and disqualifies most migrants from U.S. protection. Those who use the CBP One app are exempt.

Adam Isacson, a migration policy analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group, said he expects migration flows to stay relatively the same if Harris wins, because she is committed to continuing Biden’s policies to a large extent. But he predicted a “big increase” in border crossings if Trump is elected, especially for those in Mexico waiting for a CBP One appointment.

“The message, both from the smugglers and from the migrants’ messages to each other, will be ‘arrive now. There’s a tough deadline,'” Isacson said, referring to Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025. .