Donald Trump was rudely awakened Friday night by Fox News, when the network reported new polls in four key states (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) showing that three of them were too close to predict and that the third was slipping away.
It’s not ideal for a presidential campaign to peak about 100 days before an election, but these polls, contrasted sharply with other polls more favorable to Trump, show that the former president’s argument against President Biden is not translating into an argument against Vice President Kamala Harris as easily as GOP strategists might have hoped.
They also show a race that is arguably slipping under Trump’s nose.
Especially since the common thread running through these polls seems to be checking the “mood”; in other words, battleground voters like Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump right now, and it’s unclear how the Republican nominee will change that.
As Fox polls show, no matter who is ahead or behind, Trump is underwater everywhere and Harris is not. Great for scuba diving, but not for a close election.
In Michigan, where Biden won by less than 3 points in 2020, the Harris-Trump race is tied at 49% in a head-to-head race, though Trump is ahead 45% to 43% against Harris in a race that includes Robert Kennedy Jr. (5%), Jill Stein (1%) and Cornel West (1%).
Trump has other advantages, too, relatively speaking: He gets 17 percent of the black vote here, which is much better than the 0 percent he got in a recent Detroit News-WDIV-TV live poll in Michigan that showed a tie. Trump also has a plurality of independents here at 36 percent, a lead of more than 10 percent over Harris and Kennedy.
Still, Harris enjoys a higher net approval rating than Trump, albeit by one point.
In Wisconsin, where the last two elections were decided by less than a percentage point, Trump has a one-point lead in the binary battle and a 46% tie in the broader field. Harris has the support of 92% of Democrats and 51% of women in the broader battle. Trump has 52% of men and 89% of Republicans and is +2 with independents.
But as in Michigan, Harris has a higher net popularity: by 5 points. She is at 49% approval and 49% disapproval; Trump is at 47% and 52% respectively.
Pennsylvania, which was just over – points behind in 2020, is tied here in the two-way matchup: 49% to 49%.
That sounds great, but Trump has reason to be concerned, since he is garnering just 85 percent of the Republican vote in the expanded field, where he is down 45 percent to 43 percent.
Other warning signs in the broader field: Trump has just an 8-point lead among men and a 4-point lead among white voters.
And when it comes to approval, Harris is treading water with 49% approval and disapproval, while Trump is 7 points lower (46% approval; 53% disapproval).
Minnesota has a 6-point lead over Harris in a two-way battle and a 7-point lead in an expanded field where Trump wins just 84 percent of the Republican vote and holds on to a 5-point lead among men and white voters. She is 4 points above average in approval, a net 17-point advantage over Trump.
Republicans blame the media or Democrats for changing presidential candidates before the convention. Sure, both types are reliable workaholics, but playing the excuse game more than three months before the election is less effective than coming up with a winning strategy.
The problem is that when it comes to the race against Harris, Trump’s top strategists seem to be blindsided by the major problem facing the Republican ticket after the convention: changing the “vibes” that have all seemed to be in Harris’ favor since Biden dropped out last weekend.
During an appearance on The Brian Kilmeade Show Friday, Trump consultant Chris LaCivita promised that his campaign would offer an “all-day split screen” between his candidate and the vice president on various issues.
He then suggested that it was premature to hold a September debate between Trump and Harris because Democrats “don’t have a candidate yet” and there is “an open window for someone to challenge her.”
“She doesn’t set the tone…we set the agenda and execute it,” LaCivita said, making it sound like the Trump campaign is 10 points ahead rather than in a margin-of-error race where its candidate is struggling on key metrics.
Is it time to rectify the situation?
Probably.
But is there any point?
To be determined.
