The expanded College Football Playoff hasn’t erased the system’s flaws. She produced new ones.
This incentivizes teams to play with flexible schedules, significantly underestimating the strength of schedule and strength of records. He has no solution to the unbalanced schedules created by conference realignment. It awarded half of the first-round byes to two teams ranked ninth (Boise State) and 12th (Arizona State) in the country. It will stage four matches in the best environments imaginable, then move on to neutral, blander venues.
This is still the best college playoff football ever.
It’s a new world, beginning Friday at one of the most iconic venues (Notre Dame) in sports, in frigid conditions long foreign to the college football playoffs, featuring a team (Indiana) that n would never have had the chance to compete before. for a national championship.
The Hoosiers (11-1) set a school record for wins in Curt Cignetti’s first season as head coach, winning 10 games by at least two touchdowns behind the nation’s second-highest scoring offense (40, 3 points per game) and the sixth defense (15.7).
Indiana (+7) arrives for the interior battle with nothing to lose. The biggest pressure falls on Notre Dame, a dark horse title pick, which suffered three home losses as a heavy favorite in Marcus Freeman’s three seasons.
Cinderella has an opportunity that has been denied her for over a century. Cignetti – an assistant coach for 27 years and a lower-level head coach for 14 years – has the reward of a life spent on the sidelines.
“Google me,” Cignetti said repeatedly. “I win.”
PENN STATE (-8.5) on Smu
James Franklin is 1-15 against top-five teams, but the Nittany Lions could win their first national championship in nearly four decades without facing one of them. Penn State leads the most favorable way in the bracket with the weakest team in the field. The Mustangs will be overpowered in the trenches.
Clemson (+12) on TEXAS
The Longhorns hold significant advantages at many positions, but turnovers could narrow the gap. Quinn Ewers has been shaky all season, throwing picks in seven of his 11 starts — including three interceptions in his last two games — while Texas has been held to fewer than 21 points in three of its last four games. . The Tigers rank 11th in the nation in takeaways, averaging nearly two per game.
OHIO STATE (-7.5) over Tennessee
The overreaction to the Buckeyes’ loss to Michigan wasn’t surprising. A potential title won by the team that won at Penn State also shouldn’t destroy Indiana and should have won at undefeated Oregon. The nation’s best defense has only allowed more than 17 points twice in the past two seasons. Against SEC opponents .500 or better, the Vols barely scored 20 points per game.
On the bowls…
Remedy: Ohio (-4.5) vs. Jacksonville State
Both conference champions lost their head coaches to greener pastures. The Bobcats will be just fine without the offensive mind of Tim Albin, who will lead their eighth-ranked defense to their seventh straight coverage.
Gasparilla: Tulane (+10) over Florida
The Green Wave lost quarterback Darian Mensah to Duke, but backup Ty Thompson — a former five-star recruit, who previously played behind Bo Nix at Oregon — is using the bowl as a transfer portal showcase against the defense against the nation’s 98th-ranked pass rush.
Myrtle Beach: COASTAL CAROLINA (+10) over Utsa
The Chanticleers will be without the only two quarterbacks they have used this season, but will host a team that has not won on the road this season. Coach Tim Beck summed up the sport’s new reality: “It’s not a program. Every year you just build a team.
Idaho Potato: Northern Illinois (-3) over Fresno State
Neither team will have their starting quarterback, but the Huskies have at least one backup with more than five career pass attempts, plus a top-10 pass defense.
Hawaii: San Jose State (-3.5) over South Florida
Nick Nash leads the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. The Bulls’ 133rd-ranked pass defense could make this their biggest game yet.
GameAbove Sports: Toledo (+7) against Pittsburgh
The Panthers haven’t won a game since October. Now they might be forced to insert redshirt freshman David Lynch — who has thrown nine career passes — under center.
Rate: Rutgers (+7) over Kansas State
The Wildcats often looked unmotivated in their unsuccessful quest for a Big 12 title. Don’t expect them to match the energy or focus of the Scarlet Knights, who are 6-2 in bowl games under the direction of Greg Schiano.
68 Ventures: Bowling Green (-7) over Arkansas State
The Red Wolves allow more yards per play (6.9) than all but three teams in the country. Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. — who leads all tight ends with 100 receptions and 1,342 receiving yards — has the perfect matchup to improve his draft stock.
Armed Forces: Oklahoma (-4.5) over Navy
The Sooners will be shorthanded, but there is enough senior talent remaining to slow down Navy’s triple-option offense. Oklahoma ranked fourth in the nation in yards allowed per carry (2.9).
Birmingham: Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Vanderbilt
The Commodores had a memorable season, but faded in the final round, losing four of their last five games. Haynes King – who led an upset against Miami and nearly stunned Georgia – has the edge in the dual-threat matchup with Diego Pavia.
Liberty: Texas Tech (+2) over Arkansas
The Hogs — who went 3-6 against Power Four opponents this season — are so excited about coach Sam Pittman returning next season that five offensive starters have entered the transfer portal. Texas Tech, which boasts the nation’s seventh-ranked offense, has covered three of four games as an underdog this season.
Holiday: Syracuse (-14) over Washington State
The Cougars will be without their offensive coordinator and at least seven starters, including star quarterback John Mateer. Fran Brown, the Orange’s first-year coach, asserted himself before kickoff: “We’re not backing down here. We play football.
Las Vegas: Texas A&M (-3.5) against Usc
The problem with being a child prodigy is that it prepares you to become the oldest 41-year-old player in college football. If you’ve been selling Lincoln Riley stock, you’ll want to buy some from Mike Elko.
Fenway: UConn (+2.5) over North Carolina
The Tar Heels – who have seen several starters enter the transfer portal – went 1-7-1 ATS as favorites this season. Bill Belichick’s final years in New England have prepared him well for what lies ahead.
Pinstriped: Boston College (+2.5) vs. Nebraska
The Cornhuskers accomplished their mission – despite losing five of their last six games – ending their seven-year drought. Who knows what Bill O’Brien’s first season would have looked like if Grayson James had taken over sooner. The FIU transfer has led the Eagles to three wins in their last four games.
New Mexico: TCU (-13) over Louisiana
Josh Hoover of the Horned Frogs ranked seventh in the nation in passing yards, leading an offense that averaged more than 430 yards per game. The Ragin’ Cajuns won’t be able to keep up with true freshman Daniel Beale — owner of 98 career passing yards, no touchdowns and a 38.5 completion percentage — in taking snaps.
Pop-Tarts: Iowa State (+3.5) over Miami
Even if Cam Ward goes wild, the Hurricanes defense will find a way to let him down again against the only team in the country with multiple 1,000-yard receivers (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel).
Arizona: Colorado State (+3) over Miami (Ohio)
RedHawks coach Chuck Martin rarely steps up during bowl season, losing four of his five trips with Miami, including the last two seasons.
Military: NC State (-5.5) over East Carolina
The Wolfpack relied on its backfield down the stretch, averaging 210 yards over the final four games. That doesn’t bode well for the Pirates, who have allowed an average of more than 271 rushing yards in their last four losses.
Alamo: Colorado (-3) against BYU
Deion Sanders gets points for encouraging Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and his son/potential No. 1 NFL draft pick Shedeur to put on an extra show.
Betting on college football?
Independence: Louisiana Tech (+16.5) over the army
Since facing some of the worst defenses in the country over the first two months of the season, the Black Knights have averaged fewer than 21 points in their last six games. Army caught a bad break with a change in opponents, facing Tech’s top-20 run defense, rather than a soft Marshall front.
Music City: Missouri (-3) over Iowa
The Tigers put together the quietest 9-3 campaign imaginable, suffering their only losses against teams that spent the final week of the regular season vying for a playoff spot. The Hawkeyes — after another under-the-radar season, ranking 119th in the nation in total offense — don’t share the DNA of the opponents that give Missouri problems.
Best bets: Indiana, Penn State, Boston College, Missouri
This season: 120-103-1 (19-25-1) (entered Thursday)
2014-23 results: 1,272-1,206-30
