BEIRUT (AP) — Perched on a hilltop just steps from the Israeli border, the small village of Ramyah in southern Lebanon has almost been wiped off the map. In a nearby village, satellite photos show a similar scene: a hillside once covered with houses, now reduced to a gray trail of rubble.
Israeli warplanes and ground forces wreaked destruction in southern Lebanon last month. The goal, according to Israel, is to weaken the Hezbollah militant group, push it away from the border and end more than a year of Hezbollah firing into northern Israel.
Even U.N. peacekeepers and Lebanese troops in the south have come under fire from Israeli forces, raising questions about their ability to stay in place.
More than a million people fled the bombings, emptying much of the south. Some experts say Israel could seek to create a depopulated buffer zone, a strategy it has already deployed along its border with Gaza.
Some conditions for such a zone appear already in place, according to an Associated Press analysis of satellite images and data collected by mapping experts that show the extent of destruction in 11 villages near the border.
The Israeli military said the bombings were necessary to destroy Hezbollah’s tunnels and other infrastructure, according to which the group has a foothold in the cities. The explosions also destroyed homes, neighborhoods and sometimes entire villages, where families had lived for generations.
Israel says it wants to push Hezbollah back far enough for its citizens to return safely to their northern homes, but Israeli officials acknowledge they have no concrete plan to ensure Hezbollah stays away from the border in the long term. term. This is a key part of the United States’ attempts to broker a ceasefire.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s immediate goal is not to create a buffer zone — but that could change.
“Maybe we will have no choice but to stay there until we have an agreement promising that Hezbollah will not return to the area,” she said.
A path of destruction
Troops crossed into southern Lebanon on October 1, backed by heavy bombardment that has since intensified.
Using satellite imagery provided by Planet Labs PBC, AP identified a line of 11 villages – all within 4 miles of the Lebanon-Israel border – that were severely damaged over the month last, either by strikes or by detonations of explosives planted by Israeli soldiers.
The analysis found that the most intense damage in the South occurred in villages closest to the border, with between 100 and 500 buildings likely destroyed or damaged in each, according to Corey Scher of the CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Der Hoek of Oregon State University, experts in damage assessments.
In Ramyah, barely a single structure remains standing on the village’s central hill, after a controlled detonation that Israeli soldiers were shown carrying out in videos posted on social media. In the neighboring town, Aita al-Shaab – a village with strong Hezbollah influence – bombings transformed the hilltop where the highest concentration of buildings were located into a gray wasteland of rubble.
In other villages, the damage is more selective. In some cases, the bombing tore apart city blocks; in others, some houses were destroyed while their neighbors remained intact.
Another controlled detonation destroyed much of the village of Odeissah, with an explosion so loud it triggered an earthquake alert in Israel.
In videos of the explosion, Lubnan Baalbaki, conductor of the Lebanese Philharmonic Orchestra, looked in disbelief at his parents’ house — containing the art collection and a library his father had built up over years — be destroyed.
“This house was a project and a dream for both my parents,” he told the AP. His parents’ graves in the garden are now lost.
When asked if its intention was to create a buffer zone, the Israeli military responded that it was “conducting localized, limited and targeted raids, based on specific intelligence” against Hezbollah targets. She said Hezbollah had “deliberately embedded” weapons in homes and villages.
Israeli journalist Danny Kushmaro even helped blow up a house that the military said was being used to store Hezbollah munitions. In a television segment, Kushmaro and the soldiers counted down before pressing a button, triggering a massive explosion.
Videos posted online by the Israeli military and individual soldiers show Israeli troops planting flags on Lebanese soil. Yet Israel has not built any bases or managed to maintain a permanent presence in southern Lebanon. Troops appear to be moving back and forth across the border, sometimes under heavy fire from Hezbollah.
October was the deadliest month of 2024 for the Israeli army, with around sixty soldiers killed.
Attacks on UN peacekeeping troops and the Lebanese army
The bombings were punctuated by Israeli attacks on U.N. troops and the Lebanese army – forces that under international law are supposed to maintain peace in the region. Israel has long complained that its presence has not stopped Hezbollah from building its infrastructure in the south.
Israel denies targeting any of these forces.
The Lebanese army said at least 11 of its soldiers were killed in eight Israeli strikes, either on their positions or while participating in evacuations.
The peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, said its forces and infrastructure had been damaged at least 30 times since late September, blaming Israeli fire or military actions for around 20 of them. , “seven of which are clearly deliberate.”
A rocket likely fired by Hezbollah or an allied group hit UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura on Tuesday, causing minor injuries, UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said.
UNIFIL has refused to leave southern Lebanon, despite calls from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for them to leave.
Experts warn that could change if peacekeepers come under greater fire.
“If we went from the UN having casualties to the UN actually taking casualties,” some troop-contributing countries might “say ‘enough’, and you could see the mission start to collapse.” , said Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group.
The future of the territory is uncertain
International ceasefire efforts appear to be focused on implementing UN Resolution 1701, which ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
It specified that Israeli forces would withdraw completely from Lebanon while the Lebanese army and UNIFIL – not Hezbollah – would ensure the exclusive armed presence in an area approximately 25 kilometers from the border.
But the resolution has not been fully implemented. Hezbollah has never left the border area and Lebanon accuses Israel of continuing to occupy small areas of its territory and of carrying out frequent military overflights over its territory.
During a recent visit to Beirut, US envoy Amos Hochstein said a new deal was needed to enforce Resolution 1701.
Israel could try to push for an agreement through the destruction caused in southern Lebanon.
Yossi Yehoshua, military correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote that the army must “further consolidate its operational achievements” to push Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and the mediating countries “to accept the end (of the war) under conditions that suit them.” for Israel. »
Some Lebanese fear this means an occupation of parts of the south, 25 years after Israel ended its occupation.
Lebanese parliamentarian Mark Daou, a critic of both Hezbollah and Israeli military operations in Lebanon, said he believed Israel was trying to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and turn Lebanese public opinion “against the will to resist.” to Israeli incursions.”
Gowan, of the International Crisis Group, said one of the goals of Resolution 1701 was to give the Lebanese army enough credibility that it, not Hezbollah, would be seen “as the legitimate defender.” in the south.
“This will disappear if they become the (Israeli) gendarmerie of southern Lebanon,” he said.
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Frankel reported from Jerusalem. Associated Press writer Lujain Jo in Beirut contributed to this report.
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