WASHINGTON (AP) — Carolyn Valone had no plans to vote in November’s presidential election.
The 84-year-old Democrat from St. Louis said she “just can’t forgive Joe Biden for Gaza” and his continued support for Israel’s counteroffensive against Hamas.
Matteo Saracco and Cooper Brock, two 25-year-old traffic planners in Atlanta, were ready to vote for Biden over Republican Donald Trump. But neither was excited about the idea of a 2020 election rematch between two men who were already 150 years old between them.
“I was kind of hoping something would change,” Saracco said of watching Biden, now 81, age during his three-plus years in office.
And then it happened.
“It’s a new choice now,” Valone said, explaining his willingness to give Vice President Kamala Harris, now the likely Democratic nominee, a chance after Biden ended his re-election bid.
Valone, Saracco and Brock reflect what has come to define the 2024 presidential campaign: the broad swath of voters disillusioned or dissatisfied with having to choose between the same two men who waged a bitter national contest four years ago.
Today, those voters, especially those who lean left, are showing renewed interest in the campaign and are eager to see Harris take over from Biden as leader of the Democratic Party.
“I don’t know enough about her yet, but I’m excited to learn more,” Brock said. “And it’s certainly exciting to think that a woman, and a woman of color, is in a position to win.”
Harris’ campaign is trying to reap the rewards, capitalizing on a surge in fundraising, volunteer interest and media attention after Democrats spent the three weeks since Biden’s debate debacle debating whether the octogenarian president would step down or stick with his campaign even as his support within the party waned.
A revenge to be less hated
For months, Biden’s campaign bet that voters frustrated or in denial about their options this fall would rally to his candidacy because of their shared fear of Trump. It was a risky bet, as evidenced by how quickly Biden’s candidacy unraveled after the June 27 debate.
Now, with Harris in charge, the same team that had prepared for an attrition campaign is going on the offensive, seeing an “expanded universe of winnable voters,” as campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillion wrote in a recent memo.
While Biden and Trump were universally known and widely disliked, voters know less about the vice president.
The campaign and its Democratic allies plan to reintroduce Harris to the American people ahead of the Democratic National Convention next month and are seeking to get voters excited about their new choice.
The Democrats’ fresh start doesn’t eliminate the presence of “double haters,” voters who have negative impressions of both candidates. But it does revive the race and give Harris a chance to resonate with a broad range of voters, especially those who still have strong reservations about Trump.
There is a range of emotions and opinions among disappointed voters: while true double-haters may have genuinely unfavorable views of both candidates, others may have a clear ideological bias toward one or the other, but only one obstacle.
For Saracco, it was Biden’s age, a concern that was validated by his debate performance.
“President Biden has done an admirable job. I’m pleased with his administration,” he said. “But the debate was the breaking point.”
Disenchantment has been simmering for some time
Americans’ discontent with the possibility of a Biden-Trump rematch has been evident for some time. Just a year into Biden’s presidency, an Associated Press-NORC poll found that 7 in 10 Americans, including about half of Democrats, did not want him to run for reelection. The same poll, conducted in January 2022, also found that about 7 in 10 Americans did not want Trump to run for president again.
By that point, widespread dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance as president had begun to set in. Only about 4 in 10 Americans approved of how he was handling his job as president, according to the January 2022 poll, down nearly 20 percentage points from a year earlier.
The glow of Biden’s honeymoon had not completely faded — about half of Americans had a favorable opinion of him — but his approval ratings continued to decline in the months that followed.
By late 2023, as it became clear that a Biden-Trump rematch was a very real possibility, more than half of Americans said they would be somewhat or very dissatisfied if either Biden or Trump were nominated.
But Trump has retained the enthusiasm of many Republicans after the primaries, while Biden has lost ground among his own party’s base. An AP-NORC poll conducted in July, just before Biden dropped out of the race, found that while about 6 in 10 Republicans were satisfied with Trump’s nomination, only about 4 in 10 Democrats felt the same way about Biden. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats in that poll said Biden should drop out.
Even left-leaning voters surveyed by the AP echoed broader frustrations with a two-party system that was on the verge of a rematch.
“The United States has billions of people, and it’s hard to get a former president and another president their age to vote?” Valone asked incredulously. “I know why the Republicans nominated Trump, because they just gave him their party. But how could the Democrats not see this coming, not see that this would be an election that people wouldn’t be passionate about?”
Opportunities and risks for Harris and Trump
It’s unclear whether this new dynamic is permanent, but recent polls suggest that the events of the past two weeks may have at least temporarily dampened the momentum of the Biden-Trump rematch. Polls from CNN, The New York Times and Siena College show that at least slightly fewer voters now have unfavorable views of both candidates.
This is mainly because both polls show that fewer people have an unfavorable opinion of Harris than of Biden, although both polls also suggest a slight increase in the percentage of people saying they have a favorable opinion of Trump.
Republicans believe they can mitigate any shift in public opinion by rolling out an ad campaign that would portray Harris as an extension of Biden’s record, including on consumer prices and immigration, while also damaging her personal image. Harris and her allies have an opportunity to launch a counteroffensive.
“This race is more fluid now – the vice president is well-known but less well-known than Trump and President Biden, especially among Democratic-leaning constituencies,” O’Malley Dillon wrote.
According to Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, a senior consultant to Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, “the haters will still be around in November.” But, he adds, “there’s no question that voters know President Trump much better than they know Vice President Harris,” meaning that unfavorable views of her may not be so fixed.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres said the true independent “double haters” could still go either way, depending on campaign messaging.
“If Trump follows the path of some of the far-right on diversity, equity and inclusion, he will push women into his arms,” Ayres said, referring to diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. “If he focuses on his far-left positions on San Francisco issues, he will relegate them to the ‘double haters’ category.”
Kathryn Kabat, a 69-year-old North Carolina voter who describes herself as a Democratic-leaning independent, has already made her choice. The retired Air Force captain said she planned to vote for Biden and maintained that intention even after his debate performance.
“I felt bad for him and I was afraid he would lose and we would have another Trump term that we just can’t afford,” she said.
Today, she is not only a staunch Harris voter, but a volunteer.
“I’m sending postcards from home and I’ll do whatever I can to do that,” she said. “Maybe I can add a few voices that way.”
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Barrow reported from Atlanta.
