The central clash in Montana’s crucial Senate race — and the fight for control of the Senate itself — was on full display Monday night as Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy faced off in a heated debate .
Like other Republican challengers across the country, Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, described Tester as a liberal cog in the Democratic Party’s national machine, unable to address concerns about high costs and border security in a state which former President Donald Trump won easily twice.
Like other vulnerable Senate Democrats, Tester tried to make it personal — touting his bipartisan bona fides, emphasizing his own ties to his red-leaning state and suggesting his opponent can’t be trusted.
“You have someone like me,” Tester said in his closing statement, calling the race a “difficult” choice. “Someone who grew up within 100 miles of where I was born, who will support public lands, who will support our health care system, who will support a woman’s right to choose.”
Sheehy used part of his closing statement to note that Tester had twice voted to impeach Trump and had opposed Trump’s Supreme Court nominees. “He voted with Biden and Harris every time it mattered,” Sheehy said.
The Montana race could have national ramifications and ultimately decide which party controls the Senate.
Republicans need a net gain of just two seats to take control of the Senate, or one if Trump wins the White House, because the vice president has tie-breaking votes in the House.
The GOP actually already has a seat in its column: the open Senate race in West Virginia. Montana is the party’s next top target, with Tester running for re-election in a state that Trump won by 16 points in 2020. If Republicans defeat Tester, they will control the Senate, unless Democrats manage to long-term antagonism to one of the GOP senators up for re-election in a Republican-leaning state.
Tester’s fate could depend on how Montana fares in recent years.
A changing state
Sheehy and his Republican allies are betting that the Republican-leaning state will no longer support a Democrat for statewide office, especially with Trump on the ballot.
In his closing statement, Sheehy also noted that Tester said of Trump in a 2019 interview on MSNBC: “You have to go back and punch him in the face.” » Tester’s metaphorical remark illustrates his belief that red-state Democrats shouldn’t be afraid to publicly criticize the then-president — advice he doesn’t heed five years later.
Sheehy’s attacks underscored the broader case Republicans have been making against Tester for months, airing ads linking Tester to national Democrats who feature video of Tester supporting President Joe Biden and defending his mental health.
James Richmond, 50, an IT consultant and voter in Helena, pointed to those comments to explain why he plans to support Sheehy, although he supports Tester’s work on behalf of veterans.
“The line that broke for me was when [Tester] I got up there and said, “Joe Biden is great. He’s sharp as a harness, everything, he has no problem. And basically telling myself, with my own eyes, what I see, I’m full of bullshit,” Richmond told NBC News. “He sided with Democrats in Washington instead of standing up for Montana values.”
Richmond supported Trump in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans believe Trump’s dominance in the state will also strengthen Sheehy.
Montana has seen an increase in new residents in recent years. Although Montana voters do not register by party, a National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee analysis of new voters in the state from the 2018 election through early 2023 found that about 40% were previously registered as Republicans in other states, while 25% were registered as Democrats. .
That’s part of why some Republicans say attacks portraying Sheehy as a wealthy foreigner haven’t held up.
An AARP poll taken in late August found Sheehy leading testers by 6 points, 55% to 49%. The gap was within the survey’s 3.5-point margin of error, but it also accords with other publicly released surveys indicating Sheehy had an advantage. Sheehy had a positive net favorability rating, with 48% viewing him positively and 45% viewing him negatively. The tester, meanwhile, had a negative net rating, with 43% viewing it favorably and 52% viewing it unfavorably.
In an interview with Fox News on the eve of the debate, Sheehy projected some confidence as he reflected on recent polls. Sheehy said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is “controlling Jon Tester” and “Montanas are waking up to this reality.”
“We’re going to win this game,” he said.
But Tester and his allies believe he can still weed out Trump supporters — AARP survey finds Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points, 56% to 41%. The question is whether Tester can get unstuck enough to win.
Democratic optimism
The tester’s allies think so. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters, D-Mich., compared Tester to Sen. Susan Collins, the Maine Republican who won re-election in 2020 even though Trump lost her state by 9 points, noting that Maine and Montana have smaller populations.
“He was able to win some very tough races,” Peters said of Tester at an event at the National Press Club in Washington last week. “So what he’s facing now is no different. And he’s a great retail politician. Retail is really important, especially in a small state. Montana is a very large state geographically but a small state population-wise.
Peters said Democrats are committed to dedicating resources to Montana “until the very end.” So far, Tester and his Democratic allies have spent $105 million on ads in Montana, according to ad tracking company AdImpact, while Republicans have lost $82 million on ads in the state. Tester has far outraised Sheehy, $43.2 million so far, compared to Sheehy’s $11 million.
Tester must win over some Trump-supporting independents and Republicans, a tall order in a state Trump is expected to win easily. Tester appeared to try not to anger Trump supporters Monday night, referring to “party leaders” instead of Trump directly when he chastised Sheehy and his Republican colleagues for opposing a bill bipartisan approach on border security this year.
Tester has a history of bucking state partisanship, winning more than 30,000 more votes than President Barack Obama in 2012, surpassing him by 7 points to win a second term. But Republicans point to more recent results and higher turnout as signs of trouble for Tester.
In 2020, former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock won nearly 30,000 more votes than Biden while running for Senate, but he still lost 10 percentage points to Republican Sen. Steve Daines.
Still, some Democrats believe Tester could defy the odds, buoyed by a robust ground game that also leverages his support among Native American voters.
Toward the end of Monday night’s debate, Tester criticized Sheehy for his 2023 statements, when he used stereotypes about alcoholism while speaking about the Crow Tribe of Montana, according to audio recordings first reported times by Char-Koosta News.
“If you truly feel this way about Native Americans, you should apologize for the statements you made about them,” Tester said. Sheehy responded by referencing his military background.
“The reality is, yes, [it was] insensitive. I come from the military, like many members of our tribes. We make insensitive and probably inappropriate jokes sometimes,” he said.
It wasn’t the first time Sheehy’s use of Native American stereotypes haunted him Monday. Two Native American protesters disrupted a rally he organized with Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA just hours before the debate.
“You are racist!” You are racist! one of the protesters chanted at Sheehy as he was forcibly removed from the University of Montana theater where the event was taking place Monday afternoon.
Democrats also believe an abortion ballot initiative could also strengthen the tester among voters who want to codify abortion rights in Montana. WinSenate, an outside Democratic group, recently began running abortion-related ads in the state.
Sheehy said Monday he would respect Montana voters’ decision, but he also appeared open to supporting federal action on abortion, saying he supports “common-sense living legislation” that includes exceptions for rape and incest and to protect the life of the woman.
Tester called the issue “fundamental to who we are as Montanans” who don’t want the federal government involved in medical decisions.
“The bottom line is this: If we want situations not to happen like what happened in Georgia with a woman dying because doctors were afraid to treat her because she was afraid to go get help, so here’s your man,” Tester said. “If you want someone who will make sure women can make their own health care decisions, I’m your man.”
Sarah Thaggard, 34, a caretaker and baker from Helena, told NBC News she supported Tester out of fear that Sheehy might support a national abortion ban.
“I just know that if Sheehy comes into power, things are going to look really bad for women,” Thaggard said.
Montana Republican strategist Chuck Denowh, former executive director of the state party, said in a telephone interview that the abortion ballot initiative should boost testing, but testing still faces challenges. to a difficult road with a high turnout in November.
“I don’t think it’s enough to tip the scales for Tester. I think it helps him bring out a little more to his voters,” Denowh said. “But from the polls I’ve seen, it looks like Sheehy is in a really good position right now.”
Bridget Bowman reported from Washington and Alex Tabet from Missoula, Montana.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
