Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign remains optimistic in her bid to pull off a surprise victory in Florida and capture the state’s 30 electoral votes in November’s presidential election.
At a fundraiser in New York on Wednesday, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff told donors that Harris’ team was “going to see what we can do” in the Sunshine State, where Democrats lost to former President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020.
“The map is wide open, and we need money to compete in seven and maybe eight states,” Emhoff said at the Brooklyn event, according to a report from ABC News correspondent Will McDuffie.
“I was just in Florida, in the Villages, and it was crazy,” Emhoff added, referring to his campaign stop in Alachua County this weekend. “There were a lot more people than we thought there would be, and there was a lot of enthusiasm, and we’re going to see what we can do in Florida.”
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Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign for further comment Wednesday evening.
Florida has been considered a reliable Republican state in recent years under Gov. Ron DeSantis. Democrats have won only five presidential elections in Florida since 1952 — former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012.
But with issues like abortion on the table this year in Florida, Democrats have taken things to a new level. Democratic National Committee Chairman Jamie Harrison has previously said the party believes it has “a shot” at winning Florida and its 30 electoral votes, telling reporters this month: “I keep telling people that they’re going to be surprised on election night by what happens in this state, that we shouldn’t give up on Florida.”
Polls suggest Harris’s battle will be tough, however. According to FiveThirtyEight polls, Harris is losing to Trump by 3.6 percentage points (49.3% to 45.6%). President Joe Biden lost to Trump in Florida by 3.3 percentage points in 2020 despite winning the White House.
The RealClearPolling survey gives the former president an even bigger lead, with a 6-percentage-point lead (49% to 43%). Pollster Nate Silver’s election forecast predicts Trump has an 85.2% chance of winning Florida as of Wednesday.
There are, however, signs that Republicans may be losing ground. USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV, a poll conducted from August 7 to 11 found Trump with a 5-point lead (47% to 42%), his narrowest lead in a month. Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Power later called the poll “extremely alarming.”
“Dear fellow conservatives, it is our job to make sure that Florida, Donald Trump’s home state, is a landslide victory for him in November,” Power wrote in an August fundraising email.
Trump is also losing ground among Florida women, a key constituency heading into November that the former president has struggled to rally nationally. In a poll conducted last month by Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, Harris held a 10-point lead over Trump among Florida women voters.
In a statement to Newsweek This month, Rachel Reisner, the GOP’s regional communications director, dismissed any concerns that Florida could flip blue in the fall, saying, “Florida is Trump country.”
“In November, Florida voters will send a clear and resounding message: President Donald J. Trump is the only leader with a proven track record of making our nation prosperous and affordable,” Reisner said. “The movement to Make America Great Again is alive and growing, and it starts right here in Florida.”
