Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, is leading former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a key state he won twice in previous elections, according to a BBC report. The New York Times/Siena College survey released Saturday.
The survey published by the Times The poll, conducted by Siena College, which has already built a reputation for accuracy and transparency, shows Harris leading Trump in North Carolina by 49 to 47 percent. The poll includes results from four key states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — among 2,670 likely voters surveyed between Aug. 8 and 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
In addition to North Carolina, the poll found Harris leading in Arizona with 50% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 45%. However, Trump still leads in Georgia with 50% of the vote, and Harris with 46%. Trump also leads in Nevada with 48% of the vote, compared to the vice president’s 47%.
However, Saturday’s poll shows a shift in North Carolina, as the Tar Heel state was previously considered unwinnable for Democrats after Trump’s strong polling performance throughout the year. The state has historically favored Republican candidates, with Trump previously winning in 2016 and again in 2020. The last time Democrats won the state was in 2008, during former President Barack Obama’s first campaign for president.
In a press release, the Trump campaign condemned the poll, saying it shows how the 2020 election results between Trump and President Joe Biden are “grossly inaccurate” and are being used to “create a false lead” in favor of Harris.
“The latest polls from the key Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, are, once again, a perfect example of how the 2020 vote between President Trump and Joe Biden is being used to create a false lead for Kamala Harris. Fortunately, they proved our point this week, as they were indeed right in Georgia,” Trump’s campaign said.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.
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Battleground states will play a key role in the outcome of this year’s election because of the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population. A presidential candidate must win 270 electoral votes to win, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Polls in battleground states can be more telling than national polls.
For Harris to actually win more than 100 Electoral College votes over Trump, she would have to triumph in every key swing state, including those Trump won in 2016 and 2020. Of the seven swing states, North Carolina, with 16 Electoral College votes, is the one Harris is least likely to win.
Polymarket, an online platform where users can bet “yes” or “no” on the likelihood of world events, gives Harris just a 39 percent chance of winning the state. That appears to mirror previous polls for North Carolina, which have recently shown either Trump slightly ahead or the contenders tied.
A YouGov Blue poll of 802 registered voters conducted between August 5 and 9 showed Harris and Trump tied with 46% of the vote. A Trafalgar Group poll of 1,082 likely voters conducted between August 6 and 8 showed Trump with 49% of the vote to Harris’s 45%.
However, the Democratic presidential ticket has seen a dramatic turnaround in the polls since Biden made the unprecedented decision to drop out of the race on July 21 and endorse his vice president. Harris has surged in the polls, outpacing Trump in national polling averages and in key battleground states, while Biden has generally lagged behind.
David B. Cohen, a professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio, previously said: Newsweek as Harris’ campaign seeks to recapture the coalition that delivered victory to Obama in his first presidential campaign.
“If Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, the final election results will look a lot more like 2008 than they do in 2020, when Barack Obama expanded the Democratic electoral map and won an easy election victory. Based on the size of the crowds at the rallies, Harris appears to be approaching Obama’s level of enthusiasm,” he said. “Whether Harris will actually win North Carolina is hard to say at this point; however, the fact that polls show the state as undecided is very good news for the Harris campaign. North Carolina may be the most likely state to attract Harris among the key upper-tier states, which also include Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.”
This comes as Harris continues to make efforts to reach out to voters in the state, having recently held a rally in North Carolina on Friday, days after Trump held one in the state on Wednesday.
