Vice President Kamala Harris has a slim lead over Donald Trump in six swing states, according to a new poll.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted between September 19 and 25 shows Harris ahead by two and seven points in the seven swing states, except Georgia, where she is tied with the former president, with 49 percent each.
Harris holds her largest lead in Nevada, where she is ahead by seven points, with 52 percent to Trump’s 45 percent. In Pennsylvania, she leads by five points, with 51 percent of the polls, to Trump’s 46 percent.
President Joe Biden took both states in 2020, while Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 and Biden took Nevada.
Harris also leads by three points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, while her smallest advantage is in North Carolina, where she is ahead by two points.
Biden ceded Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin to Democrats in 2020, while Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020.
Harris’ lead in five of seven states, excluding Nevada and Pennsylvania, is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three to four percentage points, underscoring that the race is tight in battleground states and that the November election remains within everyone’s reach. earn.
News week contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns by email for comment.
AP/Susan Walsh
Still, the poll indicates that Harris’ campaign is benefiting from her agenda focused on the economy, which polls show is the most important issue to voters in the state.
While the poll shows Trump with a four percentage point lead over Harris on the economy, his lead is down from six points in August.
Meanwhile, when likely voters were asked who they trusted most to manage the cost of everyday goods, the results were almost even: 47 percent favored Trump, while 46 percent chose Harris .
However, Harris had a significant 11-point lead in voters’ confidence in supporting the middle class.
Harris’ economic agenda includes promises to build more affordable housing, offer down payment assistance to first-time home buyers and a promise to make the wealthy pay more taxes.
Meanwhile, the economy has taken a back seat to Trump’s push for a focus on immigration and crime.
Overall, Harris is ahead by three percentage points among likely voters, a lead of two points more than last month. When third-party candidates are included, Harris’ lead rises to four percentage points among likely voters in swing states.
Eli Yokley, US political analyst for Morning Consult, cautioned that his lead may not be cause for celebration, as Trump’s strength lies in his ability to attract unlikely voters.
“The political magic of Donald Trump, when he’s on the ballot, is to attract voters from the periphery who may not be in the likely voter samples,” he told Bloomberg.
The poll surveyed 5,692 likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and had an overall margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll is more favorable to Harris than other recent public polls, which showed her trailing Trump in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia and gaining a marginal lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
As of Friday morning, the FiveThirtyEight poll shows Trump leading Harris by one point in Arizona and Georgia, while Harris leads by one to three points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The two candidates are tied in North Carolina, the state with the tightest race nationally.
Pollster Nate Silver’s model also shows Trump leading by one point in Arizona and Georgia, while Harris leads between one and two points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Harris by 0.5 points in North Carolina.
A previous poll from last week showed Trump leading in three of the key states.
The survey, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College between September 17 and 21, found that Trump had a two- to five-point lead over Harris in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.
Both campaigns target these three Sun Belt states, considered crucial to securing victory in November.
In Arizona, the former president had a five-point lead over Harris, with 50 percent to 45 percent.
A Times/A Siena poll in August found the vice president leading by four percentage points in the Grand Canyon State.
In Georgia, a state that Biden narrowly turned blue in 2020, Trump had a four-point lead, with 49% of the vote to Harris’ 45%.
Trump also led Harris by two points in North Carolina, with 49 percent to Harris’ 45 percent. North Carolina hasn’t voted Democratic since 2008, with Trump winning by fewer than 75,000 votes in 2020.
The poll covered 116,000 voters and had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points in the three states.
