Analysis of figures published by the Office of Rail and Road, the regulator, showed that 5,677,890 train services operated in the 12 months to April.
A quarter of them were under state control. That figure is expected to double to more than half of all trains – 3.1 million, or 54.8 percent – ​​by next July.
The figures exclude so-called ‘open-access’ companies, which bear all commercial risks associated with operating their trains, unlike operators contracted to the Department for Transport (DfT).
They also exclude city-specific businesses such as Merseyrail and Transport for London’s Elizabeth line, among others.
The first two franchises due to expire are the sprawling Thameslink contract, which includes the Southern and Great Northern brands, and Chiltern, which links London, Oxford and Birmingham. Both expire on April 1, 2025.
Ms Haigh has promised that no private contracts will be renewed under her leadership.
It is widely expected that the nationalised operators will be placed under the control of a DfT unit known as the Operator of Last Resort (OLR), industry sources said.
The OLR is currently responsible for four railway companies: Northern, Southeastern, LNER and TransPennine Express.
