Unfathomable Errors and the “Cinnamon Bun” Strategy: End-of-Term Political Report Cards
- Author, Laura Kuenssberg
- Role, Presenter, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
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MPs hate it when you say Parliament is on holiday.
The technical term is “recess,” when the green benches empty and the chatter dies down.
Our esteemed representatives rightly point out that many of them work during the summer, either as ministers in government or in the important work of helping their constituents.
But we are almost at what might more accurately be called the “end of term” (the parliamentary recess begins on 30 July). The world is a different place than it was last time in parliament – Keir Starmer has just been photographed at his third cabinet meeting, receiving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
So what should we think of the parties’ end-of-term reports in summer 2024?
Labour Party: A resounding victory, but the situation will get worse
Labour’s mandate could hardly have been better.
The election they so desired came when they least expected it, but they were ready to go and their plans went off more or less without incident, aided by a series of unfathomable mistakes by the Conservatives.
And despite rumors that they won half-heartedly, the party’s strategy – to maximize the number of seats in parliament, not just to hoard votes – paid off with a landslide majority.
Some complain of a lack of left and some resentment over Gaza. But Labour has passed the most important public test.
For Labour insiders, it is a sudden and dispiriting change. One source told me: “You spend years in opposition with small teams trying to do the impossible, in a desperate struggle to be heard. Now we have big teams, and our words are powerful, they carry further and are also louder.”
The staging for the first few weeks went off without a hitch, with barely a frown at a camera or an out-of-place flag flying.
One of Sir Keir Starmer’s ministers joked that around the cabinet table, the prime minister is a bit like a highly engaged headmaster rounding up his prefects, making sure they are all following his plans to the letter. They nod and promise to hand in their work on time to avoid being ticked off.
But everyone reminds us that even the most effective government is rarely a few hours away from a tragedy beyond its control – a global computer disaster or an assassination attempt on the American president. The future is not simple.
Conservatives: ‘The situation is as bad as it gets’
The Conservatives like to confidently proclaim that they are the natural party of government, at least in England. After the last few months, they might be wrong to be so convinced.
It’s not just that they were displayed in polling stations. It’s also that their 2019 support has flowed in all directions – to Labor, Reform and the Liberal Democrats too.
There is no simple, straightforward answer to getting back to something resembling a credible alternative to a new, fully functioning government.
“It’s the worst you can imagine,” said one Conservative strategist. “The problems started two years ago. The Liz Truss disaster was followed by Rishi’s inaction and timidity. [on] big issues like the NHS and migration.
“Barring an external shock, the Reform Party has a very good chance of winning more seats in 2029. Who would want to be party leader in those circumstances? The candidates all have significant weaknesses and are unlikely to be prime minister.”
Image source, Getty Images
But has the party at least accepted what happened?
Another senior Tory figure said they were “bruised, uncertain and confused. There is also a good deal of delusion – it’s everyone’s fault, if only we had kept Boris, Starmer was going to ruin it anyway – it’s all nonsense.”
As if in a metaphor for their confusion, Conservative HQ has not even decided how to run the leadership race, much less who should take the reins.
SNP: Humiliated at Westminster
After several years of turbulence and embarrassment, Scottish voters have taken a major blow against the SNP, which had been so dominant in Scotland for so long.
There are parallels with the Conservatives: voters frustrated by their constitutional adventures and ailing public services, and losing to Labour.
They are still in office, with the First Minister in charge of the Scottish government at Holyrood controlling schools and hospitals.
But they were humiliated at Westminster, losing their precious third party status – which comes with public funding and the right to speak in the House of Commons.
Liberal Democrats: ‘Cinnamon Bun’ Strategy Pays Off
These advantages now accrue to the Liberal Democrats, who are totally and utterly delighted. Sir Ed Davey’s antics have attracted journalists and the press, and the party is convinced that they have generated enormous positivity towards him.
The party believes in shaking up the electoral system, but it has learned to play the first-past-the-post system more effectively, targeting “forensically and ruthlessly” areas where it could win, a party source said.
And rather than trying to please everyone all the time, they chose affluent, leafy constituencies where they could try to oust Conservative MPs. This strategy is often dubbed the “cinnamon bun strategy”, after the location of the posh Gail’s bakery.
Their 72 seats are more than they expected, but they have not come anywhere surprising: “Every seat we won was on our white board,” a party source said.
The Liberal Democrats plan to use their much larger platform to continue hammering home their messages on health and social care. They hope it is part of a longer-term, ambitious drive that has put them within reach of the Conservatives.
Reform, Greens and Plaid Cymru: How to capitalise on electoral successes?
The change of camp between the Liberal Democrats and the SNP is not the last thing to shake up the political universe this quarter.
Nigel Farage finally has a place in Westminster, alongside several colleagues who say this is the start of Reform UK becoming a force to be reckoned with – rather than a group of angry professionals who manage to garner lots of votes but struggle to translate that into action.
The Greens also believe that this mandate has really put them on the map.
They would hate to be compared with Reform UK, but both parties have managed to win over voters, even if there is no clear idea of how they intend to change their policies.
Aside from the success of some independent candidates in recent months – notably in taking votes from Labour amid discontent in Gaza – both Labour and the Conservatives are concerned about the impact of votes from the margins of society that are making them nervous.
Another of the smaller parties is certainly alive and well: Plaid Cymru won both of its target seats in the election, ending up with four seats in total.
But undoubtedly, this political mandate will be remembered for the start of a new government under the leadership of Keir Starmer, who has already made history simply by taking office.
Their number one job is to get the economy going again and tomorrow on the show we speak to the woman whose job it is to make that happen, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves (listen at 09:00 BST on Sunday on BBC One, or follow live online).
And on Monday night at 8pm BST on BBC One, we’ll take a closer look inside the brand new government.
For the drama of election night, the splendour of the King’s speech, the first moments of ministers behind closed doors, we met three of the most important figures of this new era: Reeves, Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
From holding their breath when the exit poll dropped to taking the call when former US President Donald Trump was shot, you’ll see what it’s really like on the inside as they get to work.
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