Yellow heat health warnings have been issued as temperatures are expected to reach around 30C in other parts of the UK from Thursday to Sunday.
But Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin said: “It will be much cooler in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where temperatures could be 18C or 19C, or even a little lower, where rain persists on the west coast.”
The high heat comes as some parts of the country have already recorded rainfall well above the July average, even though we are only halfway through the month.
A Met Office spokesperson said Northern Ireland had 47% of its average July rainfall between July 1 and 15. England had 97%, Wales 65% and Scotland 49%.
Nicola Maxey, from the Met Office, said: “There are big regional differences but overall it’s looking like a wet month so far.
“There is a downside: after a few weeks of drought, the situation could balance out by the end of the month.”
Temperatures reached up to 20C in many parts of Northern Ireland on Wednesday, but the outlook for Friday to Sunday so far looks rather unsettled, with showers or, especially on Saturday, longer spells of sometimes heavy rain.
A warm Friday is forecast, but it will get cooler again over the weekend.
Looking further out to the end of this month and into August, the national forecaster says there will be some signs of drier periods.
However, low pressure could continue to affect Northern Ireland at times, bringing cooler, wetter and windier conditions.
Although it is difficult to predict in the long term, meteorologist Jonathan Vautrey reassured the public: the weather forecast does not “mean that it will rain every day.”
Last month, temperatures remained around 10°C – the last time the first 10 days of June were this cold was in 2020. Compared to June last year, Northern Ireland was enjoying daily temperatures of around 20°C.
Experts said the below-average temperatures were due to the Atlantic jet stream bringing cool air from Iceland and Greenland.
David Hayter, Met Office deputy chief meteorologist, said: “The position of the jet stream, which is a ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere, is often the driving force behind the weather we experience in the UK.
“In recent weeks the jet stream has either moved towards the UK or further south, bringing mainly cooler air over the UK, with frequent incursions of unseasonably strong winds and rain.
“If there is warm weather in the UK in summer, we would tend to see the jet stream move further north, allowing warmer air to drift across the UK from the south.
“Unfortunately for those who love the heat, we have only had brief periods so far where this pattern has been present in the summer.
“Although there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast at this time, there are some subtle signs that a more stable period could develop, at least for a while, in the second half of July.”
News to follow: Wednesday July 17, 2024
