Clemson became the fifth and final conference champion to advance to the College Football Playoff with a dramatic victory over SMU in the ACC Championship on Saturday night that put the selection committee in the toughest position possible: choosing SMU or the Alabama for the big-spot final.
The stakes are enormous, both for the CFP 2024 field and for the future of the event.
Clemson’s victory — on a 56-yard field goal — came moments after Oregon held off Penn State for a 45-37 victory in the Big Ten title game that secured first place in the overall standings. Undefeated Ducks.
SEC champion Oregon and Georgia are guaranteed first-round byes in the 12-team event, with the Ducks assigned to the Rose Bowl and the Bulldogs to the Sugar Bowl.
Three teams are vying for the final two byes: Clemson, Boise State, which won the Mountain West, and Arizona State, which won the Big 12 title.
One of them will be the odd-numbered team and will open the playoffs on the road in two weeks, likely against Texas, Penn State or Notre Dame.
But that issue is secondary — at least in its ability to spark controversy — to whether Alabama or SMU is selected for the final free agent spot.
The Mustangs (11-2) were No. 8 in the committee’s rankings released earlier this week, while the Crimson Tide (9-3) were No. 11.
Would the committee punish SMU for losing the ACC championship game on a last-second field goal by Clemson?
Or would that exclude Alabama, which has played a much stronger schedule than SMU and has more quality wins? (The Crimson Tide beat Georgia, which beat Clemson, which beat SMU.)
If the committee picks SMU for the final spot, the mighty SEC would be left with just three CFP offers.
Commissioner Greg Sankey said in October that the selection process was expected to “go incredibly well.” Some took Sankey’s comment as a not-so-veiled threat: If the SEC and Big Ten didn’t get what they wanted (in terms of bids and seeds), the most powerful conferences in sports would force a format change starting with the 2026 season.
This change could result in more automatic bids for the SEC and Big Ten at the expense of access to other FBS conferences.
Beyond the SMU-Alabama debate, the 12-team field is defined. Only the seeds need to be resolved before Sunday’s announcement (9 a.m. on ESPN).
It should look like this:
— Seeds No. 1 to No. 4 (first round byes): Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State
— Seeds No. 5 to No. 8 (home opening matches): Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State/Tennessee
— Seeds No. 9 to No. 12 (first round of road matches): Ohio State/Tennessee, Indiana, Clemson and Alabama/SMU
Arizona State’s victory over Iowa State in the Big 12 championship also brings a degree of clarity to the Pac-12 bowl selection process, which includes all legacy schools this season despite the conference breakup.
As the Ducks and Sun Devils head into the CFP, all other eligible teams will move up two spots from their natural position:
— The Alamo Bowl has the top pick and is expected to select Colorado, which finished tied for first place in the Big 12 but lost the tiebreaker.
The Buffaloes will face either Iowa State or Brigham Young, according to bowl officials.
Given the Cyclones’ dismal performance in the title game — and their expected fall in the rankings — Brigham Young is a safe bet to oppose Colorado. (The teams did not meet during the regular season.)
— The Holiday Bowl has the No. 2 pick and will invite Washington State, which is protected by the Pac-12’s one-loss rule. This prevents bowl officials from bypassing one team for another if there is a loss difference of two games (or more).
The Cougars are 8-4 and should be picked ahead of the three teams that finished 6-6 (USC, Washington and Cal), according to the Pac-12.
Washington State’s opponent will be from the ACC.
— Next up is the Las Vegas Bowl, which features a 6-6 team pick and is expected to invite the Trojans, who began their season in Sin City with a dramatic victory over LSU.
USC’s opponent will come from the SEC, which could mean a matchup against coach Lincoln Riley’s former team, Oklahoma.
But one wonders if Mississippi, led by former USC coach Lane Kiffin, is more likely.
— The Sun Bowl has the fourth pick and is expected to choose Washington, which hasn’t played in El Paso since 2002.
The Huskies will face an ACC team.
– That leaves the LA Bowl to select Cal, the only remaining eligible team among the Pac-12 legacy schools.
The selection makes sense as the Bears have a large alumni base in Southern California and did not play a regular season game at USC or UCLA for the first time in years. chandeliers.
Cal would face a Mountain West opponent.
Bowl pairings will become official Sunday afternoon, following the CFP reveal.
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