Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives by a razor-thin margin, NBC News projected Wednesday, giving President-elect Donald Trump and his party all the levers of power in Washington.
A Republican-controlled Congress will allow Trump to quickly fill his Cabinet and other senior administration positions and advance his agenda for at least the next two years. Last week, Republicans flipped three Democratic Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber.
The landslide victory for House Republicans was propelled by Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in both the Electoral College and the popular vote. It represents a blow to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democrats, who will now have virtually no control over Trump, a man they warned on the campaign trail was a threat to democracy, a extremist and a fascist.
“It’s a beautiful morning in Washington. It’s a new day in America,” Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said in celebration on the steps of the Capitol, flanked by his leadership team, as the Chamber returned to Washington on Tuesday. “The sun is shining, and it reflects what we all feel.”
How the Republicans won
Democrats believed they were in a good position to regain the majority they lost just two years ago. They needed a net gain of just four seats to flip control of the House, given that Republicans now hold 220 seats to Democrats’ 212 – one of the smallest majorities in modern history.
But the two parties fought to a tie in the House, preserving a status quo that favored Republicans.
In New York, Democrats managed to eliminate three vulnerable freshman GOP candidates: Rep. Brandon Williams in the Syracuse area, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito on Long Island, and Rep. Marc Molinaro, whose district includes parts of the Hudson. Valley and the Catskills. They were among the 18 GOP House districts carried by President Joe Biden in 2020.
Democratic challenger George Whitesides also ousted vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Garcia in Southern California.
But Trump’s triumph — including his victories in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Michigan where key House races were fought — helped bolster Republican incumbents and new contenders in the seats that mattered.
Two of the GOP’s biggest prizes came in the Keystone State. Republicans unseated two vulnerable veteran Democrats in neighboring eastern Pennsylvania districts. GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan ousted six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright, a former staffer, in the 8th District, which Trump carried in 2020. In the neighboring Allentown-based 7th District, the GOP state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie upset Democratic Rep. Susan. Wild, the top Democrat on the House Ethics Committee.
Meanwhile, in the capital Harrisburg, Democrats thought they had a good chance of unseating former Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry, a Trump ally who played a role in efforts to overturn the 2020 election. But the six-term incumbent fended off a strong challenge from former local TV anchor Janelle Stelson, who attacked Perry on everything from the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and abortion rights to his votes on veterans’ issues.
Republicans also picked up a seat in Michigan, held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who successfully ran for an open Senate seat. And GOP challenger Gabe Evans narrowly beat freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Colo., by less than a percentage point in a heavily Hispanic district north of Denver.
The task of governing
The small House’s victory has enormous consequences as Republicans turn to the task of governing. When Trump and his congressional allies take the reins in January, they will have another rare opportunity to pass major policy initiatives through “reconciliation” — an arcane process that would allow the Republican Party to rush legislation without it. support from Democrats.
Discussions about which reforms to pursue began even before the election, with some Republicans pushing to use reconciliation to renew the expiring Trump tax cuts and others like Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a Trump ally, calling on Republicans to take charge of border security. legislation. It’s not yet clear what exactly the border bill would contain, but Trump has repeatedly said he would “seal” the southern border on his first day as president and launch “the world’s largest immigration agenda.” expulsion from American history.”
In the final days of the campaign, Johnson told supporters that “massive” reform of the Affordable Care Act would be part of the Republican Party’s first 100-day agenda, although he has since denied that Republicans would attempt to repeal Obamacare, because they failed to do so. in 2017.
With very little room to maneuver, Republicans will undoubtedly face challenges. And Trump has already selected two members of the new majority to serve in his administration, Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Mike Waltz of Florida. Both are in solidly Republican districts that the party will likely hold special elections to replace, but vacancies after they leave could be a problem for Johnson.
The GOP had a tiny majority in Congress and was struggling to advance its agenda. Instead, the past two years have been defined by a successful conservative coup against President Kevin McCarthy of California, the expulsion of a Republican congressman from New York, and intra-party wrangling over Republican Party spending bills.
Johnson and the Republicans will now have partners in a majority in the Senate and the White House, which they hope will allow them to rally behind Trump and put some of this infighting behind them. Johnson and his top lieutenants — Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a fellow Louisiana Republican, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. – are all running unopposed for re-election to their top positions on Wednesday.
Johnson will still need 218 votes in the House on the first day of the new Congress in early January to win his first full term as president.
“If there is a unified government… if we have a bicameral approach – Republicans in both houses working together to develop this agenda and implement it, and President Trump leads the way – I think there will certainly be much less dissension in the ranks of our party. side,” Johnson said in an interview with NBC News during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania before the election.
“I think everyone will want to be part of this majority that solves the country’s problems,” added the speaker. “And I think governing will be a lot easier in January. »
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