Satellite imagery and post-strike photos released following a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Marinovka airbase show significant damage to metal aircraft shelters on the flight line and other parts of the base.
Several of the affected hangars housed aircraft that were most likely damaged, possibly seriously, in the attack claimed by Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU). The base is located in Russia’s Volgograd region, about 300 miles (480 kilometers) from current front lines.
Marinovka Air Base
…and the image “AFTER” (30 cm from August 22, 2024 at 07:58 UTC)
I’m still analyzing but given the interest I’ve generated I’ve shared what I think are the areas that have been affected.
Again, less cells. Lots of destruction around the hangars and just north of there https://t.co/Ows1Tus3Lkpic.twitter.com/LSbd54hcLo
— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) August 22, 2024
An image posted on Telegram and enlarged by Radio Europe Libre/Radio Liberty Journalist Mark Krutov offered a better view of the planes stuck in the hangars.
A close-up image of one of these hangars shows dozens of small holes that indicate Ukraine used munitions containing ball bearings or other fragmentation devices on the drones to maximize the damage they cause. This is a common practice on the Ukrainian battlefield and beyond.
A photo also emerged purporting to show shrapnel recovered from the airfield. The War Zone Unable to independently verify its authenticity, the Fighterbomber Telegram channel linked to the Russian Aerospace Forces bitterly complained that someone had captured footage of the aftermath of the attack.
“I wonder if, given the photo from Marinovka, it was just some idiot who took the picture?” Fighterbomber asked. “A traitor for money? Or some poor guy who was ordered to urgently provide a photo report of the damage and usually sent it via WhatsApp to his superior?”
Other parts of the base were also affected, as reported on Twitter by investigator MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson), who also compared before and after images showing the extent of the damage.
“I’m still analyzing things, but given the interest, I’ve shared what I believe to be the areas that were affected,” he wrote. “Again, I’m not really talking about the airframes. There was a lot of destruction around the hangars and just to the north.”
Marinovka Air Base
…and the image “AFTER” (30 cm from August 22, 2024 at 07:58 UTC)
I’m still analyzing but given the interest I’ve generated I’ve shared what I think are the areas that have been affected.
Again, less cells. Lots of destruction around the hangars and just north of there https://t.co/Ows1Tus3Lkpic.twitter.com/LSbd54hcLo
— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) August 22, 2024
Further analysis of the images taken on August 19 by Anderson shows that there appear to have been more than a dozen Su-24M Fencer rotary-wing attack aircraft and more than a dozen Su-34 Fullback attack aircraft at the base. It is unclear how many of these aircraft were there at the time of the attack.
On Thursday morning, a video was released just after the attack, showing a large part of the base covered in thick smoke. Someone can be heard in the video lamenting the situation.
“It’s still flying,” he said, according to a translation provided by Anton Gershchenko, a former Ukrainian government adviser and regular commentator on social media. “It’s still flying. They’ve completely destroyed it. The airfield is ruined. This is a serious tragedy, guys. This is very serious…”
“He’s still fucking flying. He’s still doing stupid things. They completely destroyed him. The airfield is ruined. This is a serious tragedy, guys. This is very serious…” – the situation at the Marinovka military airfield in the Volgograd region of Russia. https://t.co/03C3JzU9ys pic.twitter.com/2ivd9mwhyP
– Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 22, 2024
The SBU said it launched the attack, in cooperation with Ukrainian special operations forces, to destroy guided bombs stored there, among other targets, according to Ukrainian Pravda (UP).
The SBU “strikes with high precision the airfields used for attacks on Ukraine,” the newspaper added, citing a source in the security agency. “Each strike diminishes Russian air superiority and significantly limits the capabilities of its aircraft.”
Local residents described the airfield as “looking like scenes from an apocalypse movie following the Ukrainian drone attack.” UP “Warehouses containing guided aerial bombs, ammunition, fuel and lubricants were exploding on the airfield.”
As we reported in a June article about the need for aircraft shelters in the age of drones, Google Earth highlighted 12 aircraft shelters on the Marinovka flightline. Construction began in November last year. This is a relatively rare feature for Russian air bases. You can see these shelters in the image below.
The War Zone We looked at why these shelters were necessary as part of a larger study into whether the United States should build hardened shelters for its fighter jets. From our article at the time:
“The precise reasons for erecting the shelters at Marinovka are not known, but Russian forces have claimed to have shot down a suspected Ukrainian drone over Volograd in September 2023. Ukraine’s widespread and daily use of armed unmanned aerial systems, including long-range kamikaze systems and systems launched much closer to their targets, poses a real threat, including to aircraft displayed on the tarmacs of airbases deep inside Russia.”
This is exactly what happened in Marinovka. We also wondered how the shelters would withstand an attack. Satellite images show that such structures offer only partial protection against long-range drone strikes, something Fighterbomber denounced after the attack.
“By the way, light aircraft shelters have undergone a baptism of fire,” Fighterbomber writes. “The ones that were given as gifts.”
“Well, the miracle didn’t happen,” Fighterbomber complained. “Let’s just say it did. We need reinforced concrete structures. But that doesn’t mean lightweight shelters aren’t needed. They’re needed wherever reinforced concrete structures can’t be built. And like I said, they need to be reinforced with gabions or concrete blocks along the perimeter.”
These shelters do, however, appear to have protected the enemy from the impact of some nuclear warheads and prevented the fragments from flying further and damaging other airframes. They would probably be more effective against localized attacks using drones piloted by nearby personnel and dropping bombs and other explosive devices. Moreover, much of their usefulness comes from the fact that they complicate the enemy’s ability to confidently target aircraft on the ground, since they can be concealed under some of them but not others. And a thin sheet of corrugated iron is not going to stop an explosive fragmentation warhead. If you want that kind of protection, you need a more reinforced aircraft shelter than the one Russia has installed at this base, and it certainly knows that.
The metal shelters may not work miracles, but given the extent of the damage, the attack would have been more devastating for the Russian air force without them.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com