Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown saw his re-election hopes rise after a new poll found him leading his Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, just days after two consecutive polls showed him lagging behind.
Moreno and Brown are engaged in a tight race for a hotly contested U.S. Senate seat, with most polls showing the candidates’ leads within the margin of error.
A New York TimesA Siena College poll of 687 likely voters in Ohio found the three-term senator was 4 percentage points ahead of Moreno in the hotly contested Buckeye state, which is within the margin of poll error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll, conducted September 17-21, found Brown garnering 47 percent of the vote, compared to Moreno’s 43 percent.
Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks New York Times/Polling Siena College as America’s top pollster based on its historical track record and methodological transparency.
The poll shows that Brown has the support of 10% of voters who supported former President Donald Trump in 2020, and 13% of his supporters identify as Republicans. On the other hand, Moreno, who Trump endorsed before the state’s Republican primary in March, would only attract 1% of voters identifying as Democrats.
News week contacted Brown and Moreno’s campaign teams for comment via email on Saturday.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images/ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images
With 37 days until Election Day, which will determine the presidential seat and control of Congress, the Senate majority is in play by razor-thin margins. The upper house is currently controlled by Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as a caucus of four party independents, while Republicans hold 49 seats.
The Cook Political Report is currently calling the Ohio Senate race a “toss-up.” In the presidential race, the state is expected to vote for Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. Overall state polls, such as FiveThirtyEight, show Trump holding an 8.6 percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Ohio. Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2020.
The recently published Times/The Siena College poll comes after two polls showed Moreno’s presence in the state. However, during the summer months, most polls found Brown leading Moreno.
An ActiVote poll conducted from August 16 to September 22 showed the Democrat losing 2.2 percentage points, with Moreno getting 51.1 percent support, compared to Brown’s 48.9 percent. The poll surveyed 400 likely Ohio voters and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent, meaning Moreno’s narrow lead is well within the survey’s margin of error.
A Neapolitan News survey of 781 likely voters conducted between September 18 and 20 found that Moreno was leading Brown 48 percent to 46 percent, another lead that is within the poll’s margin of error of 3, 5 percentage points.
Other previous polls gave Brown the edge in the contested race. A Morning Consult poll conducted between September 9 and 18 gave Brown a 2-point lead over Moreno. The Democrat had the support of 46 percent of likely Ohio voters and the Republican had the support of 44 percent. The survey included at least 474 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Last week, Moreno came under fire from political opponents and members of his own party after calling it “a little crazy” that some voters in the state are citing abortion as their top issue in the 2024 election .
“You know, the left has a lot of voters on one issue,” Moreno said during a town hall meeting Friday, according to video obtained by NBC4. “Unfortunately, by the way, there are a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women who say: ‘Look, that’s what abortion is. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anyone.” other.'”
Abortion is one of the top issues in the November election, two years after the Supreme Court overturned the decision. Roe v. Wade and ended women’s federal right to abortion.
On Monday, Brown shared a video clip including Moreno’s town hall comments on Ohio who voted to protect abortion rights last year. “, he wrote.
Moreno also received backlash from members of his party, such as former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley who posted Moreno’s comments on X and wrote: “Are you trying to lose the election? You ask for a friend.
Conservative political commentator Bill Kristol wrote on X: “I don’t know. Maybe women over 50 care about their daughters? Or young women in general? Or their personal freedom?”
