At a bourbon tasting a few weeks ago, I met Bob, who is part of a unique fantasy football league called Mortgage Mafia. They rent out a banquet hall in a downtown Charlotte hotel every year for their annual draft. Attendance is mandatory, even for those who live out of state. No excuses are accepted. One owner had a contagious disease, and they would only allow him to draft remotely if he provided a doctor’s note. This is a serious league. And I am serious when I say we need to draft the following Sleepers and avoid these Busts for the 2024 season.
The sleepers wake up
QB Geno Smith — Over his last two NFL seasons, Geno finished fifth in TD passes (50), sixth in passing yards (7,906) and was selected to the Pro Bowl. Still, his ADP is falling faster than a wingless Seahawk. Geno’s targets include talented DK Metcalf, crafty veteran Tyler Lockett and youngster Jaxon Smith-Njigba. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb favors a long-ball offense, which is perfect for Geno’s skill set. It’s safe to take Geno as a starting QB. After all, he was the seventh-best Fantasy QB in 2022.
RB Austin Ekeler — Ekeler suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2 of last season and was never the same. A terrible offensive line only compounded his ineffectiveness. The Chargers may have lost faith in Ekeler, but the Commanders and I still believe in him. New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has always had exceptional running games with his Arizona teams. Kingsbury knows that Ekeler, 29, is still the same guy who scored 44 TDs over the last three years.
WR Diontae Johnson —You may remember Johnson as the Steelers WR who went two years and 119 receptions without a TD. In his defense, Johnson was catching passes from Pittsburgh’s miserable QBs. Granted, we have to trust Carolina QB Bryce Young, who is also coming off a miserable season. But Young threw 79 TDs in his final two college seasons at Alabama. I’m going to take Johnson in every draft I can. He’ll be a PPR machine, and if he scores 10 TDs, he’ll be a top-20 WR.
TE Mike Gesicki — The former Penn State standout has never been known as a blocking TE, but Gesicki is a confident receiver. Tight ends in Cincy’s offense average about 50 receptions a year. I won’t draft Gesicki until the late rounds, but we’ll know by Week 2 if he’ll be a big part of the Bengals’ offense in a highly anticipated shootout against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Move a little
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers — Relax, Jets faithful. Rodgers is still a great NFL quarterback. But for fantasy purposes, the stars are misaligned. A balanced offense led by RB Breece Hall will keep opponents honest while Rodgers patiently works his way down the field. Since Rodgers doesn’t need to be a bomber, his numbers will look similar to those of his final season in Green Bay: 3,500 yards and 25 TD passes. Those numbers would have ranked him 16th last year, behind the likes of Derek Carr and Sam Howell.
RB Zack Moss — After four solid performances last season for the Colts (445 yards, four TDs), Moss rewarded his disappointed owners with just 348 yards and three TDs in the last 12 games. The Bengals figure he’s a replacement for the departed Joe Mixon. But I’m betting on Chase Brown, who is in his second year. Moss could start the year slowly anyway, with games against stout run defenses like Kansas City, Washington and conference partners Baltimore and Cleveland. By Week 6, you’ll be wondering what Brown can do for you?
WR Khalil Shakir — Contrary to popular belief, Shakir will not be a de facto replacement for No. 1 WR Stephon Diggs. Diggs has been forced to target players to keep his big mouth and ego in check, leading to a skewed reality of his production. The Bills aren’t going to force-feed the humble Shakir. Newcomer Curtis Samuel should lead the team in receptions, and TE Dalton Kincaid and rookie Keon Coleman will keep Shakir in his WR3 role.
TE Pat Freiermuth — The day the Steelers signed former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith as their offensive coordinator was the day Freiermuth died. You’ll recall that it was Smith who single-handedly ruined TE phenom Kyle Pitts’ first three years in Atlanta. By foolishly using his best players as decoys, Smith ended up with a 21-30 record in balmy Atlanta and a one-way ticket to cold Pittsburgh. I can see a frustrated Freiermuth longing for the day Smith is fired from Pittsburgh.
A man’s opinion — Two gems from Fantasy Football guru Jeff Mans in his 2024 draft guide, available now at FantasyGuru.com, feature Ravens WR Devontez Walker as a sleeper and Colts WR Adonai Mitchell as a breakout rookie. Get 30% off subscription prices at FantasyGuru.com, the best source for seasonal sports, DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) and sports betting advice. Just head to FantasyGuru.com and enter code NEW30 for instant savings.
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Bill Reinhard is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, a columnist and artist for FantasyGuru.com, and the author of Jets legend Joe Klecko’s Hall of Fame acceptance speech.
