The last day of 2024 Atlantic hurricane season It’s November 30, but as we approach that finish line, the Caribbean has other ideas on its mind, with a potential tropical system brewing.
The National Hurricane Center announced Wednesday afternoon that Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 had formed in the western Caribbean. If it reaches tropical storm strength, he will be named Sarah. Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Hurricane chasers took off from Biloxi, Mississippi, at noon ET on Wednesday to survey this area and determine the strength and structure of the developing weather system. Another flight is planned for Thursday morning for additional follow-up.
CBS News
With the low pressure system in place in the western Caribbean, conditions were favorable for the formation of a tropical system. Forecast models integrate current environmental factors along with historical data to calculate “spaghetti plots” of where systems can track. Each model uses different calculations, which explains how the forecast trajectory is the result of the consensus of these models.
CBS News
The strength of this system is determined based on how much fuel it has (factors such as being in a favorable environment over warm waters, low wind shear, lack of fronts). interception) and the duration during which it remains in these favorable conditions. Regardless of its strength, forecast models have it lingering in the western Caribbean through the weekend before turning northward and toward the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
CBS News
After entering the Gulf, the consensus of forecast models predicts that it will make a right turn and head towards Florida by the end of next week.
A lot can happen between now and next week and conditions can change quickly, but areas like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should prepare for heavy rain over the next few days. Florida residents should continue to monitor the forecast as updates arrive.
