Ukraine makes surprise breakthrough in Russia – armoured columns break through unprepared defences, capture towns and settlements – is perhaps the boldest gamble in more than two years of war, since the invasion was launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin. “This is a significant psychological blow to the Russian mindset, particularly Putin’s, who sees Ukrainian penetration into Russian territory, [for the] “This is the first time since World War II,” said former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley.
But Milley points out that the 470-square-mile area is just a dot on the map of Russia. And with three exposed flanks, it carries considerable risks. “The Russians could mass their forces there, isolate them and overwhelm the Ukrainians,” Milley said.
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Asked about the possibility of Putin launching a major counteroffensive to retake Russian territory, Milley said: “That’s at least one of the possibilities that could very well happen in the coming months.”
Putin is pursuing a long-term war strategy, relying on the weight of numbers to slowly crush Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is trying to shorten the war by bringing it back to Russian soil. Last week, An arms depot 300 miles inside Russia was destroyed by a huge fireball Ukrainian President Zelensky has also pushed for permission to use U.S.-made long-range missiles against targets in Russia. “We need to have this long-range capability so that Russia is motivated to seek peace,” he said earlier this month.
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Ukraine has already used the army’s tactical missile systems (known as ATACMS) with devastating effect against Russian targets in occupied Crimea.
According to Milley, the range of ATACMS is about 300 kilometers. “You can shoot virtually from Washington, D.C. to New York,” he said.
The ATACMS is guided by GPS and carries a 500-pound nuclear warhead. “It’s clear that it would have an impact wherever it hit,” Milley said, “but it wouldn’t destroy an entire depot. It wouldn’t destroy a brigade or a division of troops.”
Zelensky said he needed it to counter attacks by gliding bombs launched from bases in Russia.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said it was too late for that: “We know that the Russians have actually moved their aircraft that use the glider bombers beyond the range of ATACMS.”
Other Russian military targets are still within range of the ATACMS system, but Putin has warned that hitting them would bring NATO and the United States directly into conflict with Russia.
“He’s making a clear and unambiguous threat against NATO,” Milley said. “You could easily send Russian missiles to hit Poland, for example. If one or two of those missiles hit an area where American forces are, killing American soldiers, then you’d have a major international crisis.”
This is a major challenge for a war that has already claimed an estimated (on both sides) one million casualties and is mired in a stalemate.
“The likelihood of Russia militarily invading Ukraine is very unlikely,” Milley said, “but the likelihood of Ukraine militarily forcing a withdrawal of a few hundred thousand Russian troops is also very unlikely.”
Zelensky has bet that his already strained defensive lines in Ukraine will hold up as he opens a new front in Russia. “He’s taken a calculated risk, to put himself in a strong position for what he sees as some sort of negotiation coming up perhaps next year,” Milley said.
Part of the risk is whether the United States, whose politics are deeply divided, will continue to provide Ukraine with enough weapons to repel Russian attacks. Funding for those weapons is set to expire at the end of the month.
Milley said: “If somehow this aid is cut off, if somehow Europe or the United States does it, not “If we support Ukraine, then I think it becomes very problematic for Ukraine to continue its fight.”
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Story written by Mary Walsh. Editor: Joseph Frandino.
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